Brace yourselves, Pittsburgh. The National Weather Service of Pittsburgh, PA, has issued a warning for an unsettled weather pattern expected to last through Tuesday, which could bring strong wind gusts and the potential for localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. According to the early morning forecast discussion, showers and thunderstorms are expected to creep back into the area from the southwest as dawn approaches, with a flood watch in effect through 10 pm for what they're describing as excessive rainfall.
Today's forecast comes loaded with the hazards of an incoming shortwave over the Ohio Valley and a surface low developing across Ohio, this phenomena likely to move northeast during the day, triggering widespread shower and thunderstorm activities – and that’s including the real chance for additional heavy rainfall as it passes near or directly through the local area.
Looking ahead, don't expect a respite just yet. The short-term forecast predicts further unsettled conditions with a trailing cold front draped across the area, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the mix through Monday night, increasing the risk for strong to severe storms Monday afternoon. Then Tuesday brings more showers and storms as an upper trough moves across the Ohio Valley – all continuing a menacing dance that threatens more excessive rainfall and localized flooding.
But it's not all grey skies and ominous forecasts. The long-term forecast holds a glimmer of resiliency, with the trough expected to exit by Wednesday morning, and high pressure building in to facilitate a period of dry and less humid weather from Wednesday through Thursday night. A passing trough might drop some rain on Friday, and while Saturday's outlook holds yet another chance of precip, it's too early to say if that will metamorphose into any severe or flood risk.
Aviation interests, heed caution: VFR, with patchy MVFR visibility in haze, is expected through early Sunday morning, but as the low pressure and warm front close in, rain and MVFR restrictions are set to spread across the region Sunday morning. The period following the low/trough exiting Sunday evening could create a canvas for IFR fog and stratus to form, meaning that if you're flying in or out of Pittsburgh, look out for changes and plan accordingly.
