Pittsburgh residents can expect a warming trend through Wednesday. An update provided by the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh highlighted the continuation of dry conditions, but with the potential impact of lofted wildfire smoke that could reduce temperatures. The synoptic outlook, detailed in a forecast discussion released at 741 AM EDT, indicates that this smoke may even reach lower levels by Tuesday, possibly affecting visibility and air quality.
Early risers in regions of northwest PA and the WV higher terrain may have encountered patchy frost this morning, according to the National Weather Service. The light wind and mostly clear skies overnight contributed to these conditions; however, as the sun heats the surface, any frost will dissipate. Despite predictions of abundant sunshine, forecasters have adjusted temperature projections downward due to the influence of the smoke, perhaps lowering daytime highs by ~2 degrees from model values.
The forecast for Tuesday to Wednesday night anticipates temperature increases, with Wednesday projected to be the hottest day of the week. Urban areas west of Pittsburgh could see temperatures soar above 90 degrees, based on probabilities indicated by ensemble models. However, these rising temperatures may be somewhat offset by the continued presence of Canadian wildfire smoke overhead, as hinted by recent HRRR modeling. This smoke not only hampers the solar heating but also could mix down to the surface by Tuesday afternoon, potentially leading to haze and reduced visibility.
As the week progresses, the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms escalates, particularly as we head into the weekend. This is due to the movement of multiple atmospheric waves over the southeastern ridge of the country, which may gradually push it towards the Gulf States. While the overall trend for temperatures is a return to seasonal averages, the timing and evolution of storms remain uncertain. This variability largely depends on the development of upstream weather features. Nonetheless, this pattern breakdown could be indicative of severe weather conditions, warranting attention as the period draws near.
Regarding aviation, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout most of the forecast period. Nonetheless, there is potential for visibility issues due to the wildfire smoke, which might become more pronounced at near-surface levels come Tuesday afternoon. According to the weather forecast, haze with visibilities of around 4-6 SM is anticipated. Later this week, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase, mainly tied to convective developments, and thus be the next factor poised to impact airport operations and visibility.
For up-to-date information on how the wildfire smoke might affect air quality, residents are encouraged to visit airnow.gov or consult their state's department of environmental services. The frost advisories that were in place for northeast counties in PA and parts of WV high terrain expired at 8 AM EDT this morning.
