It's another sizzler of a day out there, Pittsburgh. The National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA, has issued a Heat Advisory in effect until 8 PM EDT, stating that heat indices are approaching the 100°F mark. The urban and valley areas are feeling the brunt of this hot spell, so it's best to keep cool and hydrate frequently. Keep an eye on the skies too, as the threat of downbursts and slight flooding risks loom over the afternoon and evening.
According to the latest updates, isolated flooding and severe wind chances are also on the table. Stagnant high humidity levels and the 500MB ridge hunkered down over the Carolinas are fueling afternoon thunderstorm development across Southwestern PA and Northern WV. Given that these regions have already taken a hit in the past couple of days, the National Weather Service warns that it will likely result in lower FFG. In other words, ground that's already wet could exacerbate flooding issues.
As the boundary remains over the north and aligns along the ridges to the east, residents should prepare for continued weather threats. The NBM probabilities suggest over 50% chances of one inch of rain over 24 hours, particularly in southwest Pennsylvania and along the ridges. On the severe side, expect another day where heat indices breach the 100-degree mark, marking the end of the heat advisory on a notably hot note.
Looking a little further ahead, the weekend forecast keeps us on our toes with continued downburst winds and flooding threats for Saturday. As the National Weather Service explains, the LREF mean analysis shows 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE, 650 DCAPE, and PWATS backing up near 1.8" to 1.9" in moisture pooling along the boundary. This suggests that flooding threats may be more severe than in previous days, so make sure to plan accordingly and stay informed.
When Monday rolls around, anticipate more storms as the boundary makes its way back north. Despite a cold front expected to bring some reprieve late Monday into Tuesday, the waterlogged trend seems to persist for Pittsburgh and its surrounding areas. By mid-week, forecasters are confident that the weather pattern will change—high pressure will bring a break from the daily convection, and temperatures will return to normal.
For aviation interests, the forecast indicates that storms will likely dissipate this evening, leaving behind a chance for MVFR/IFR fog or stratus in the early morning. Pilots should remain vigilant about localized restrictions and keep an up-to-date eye on the skies, especially with the likelihood of afternoon showers and storms from Saturday through Monday, as the weather action continues unabated.
