The National Weather Service is projecting a week filled with potential showers and thunderstorms for Columbus, Cincinnati, and surrounding areas through Thursday, June 16. According to the National Weather Service's recent Area Forecast Discussion, expectations of drier weather are on the horizon for Friday, with a return to warmer and more humid conditions expected next weekend.
For the near term, conditions kick off with some fog in the southeastern counties under NWS's jurisdiction. "Some reduced visibilities have been observed for the past few hours to the south and east of those locations," the forecast discussion notes. While scattered convection is possible during daylight hours, the chance of hazardous weather remains relatively low. A small chance does exist for slow-moving storms that could produce heavy rain but is not widely expected.
Moving into the short-term outlook for Tuesday, the forecast elaborates on a developing situation: as evening sets in on Monday, attention turns to storm activity brewing southwest of the forecast area, with these systems projected to push northeastward overnight. "These storms will be developing ahead of a shortwave, in a regime with focused and persistent boundary-layer theta-e advection, under the right entrance region of a 300mb jet streak," according to the NWS. High moisture content in the atmosphere is slated to heighten the risk of heavy downpours, which could lead to flooding overnight and into Tuesday as the next wave of systems start aligning.
In the long-term forecast, a more zonal flow temporarily sets in on Tuesday night, but by Wednesday, heightened temperatures pave the way for the season's first punch of powerful heat indices approaching the mid to upper 90s. Going into Wednesday night, the brewing potential for organized storms is a concern, especially in light of a deeper trough and cold front pushing in from the west. These developments signal the possibility of storms intensifying in the western Ohio Valley and may affect the region through Thursday.
For aviation interests, treading through the convoluted skies, the NWS suggests dry conditions will persist through Monday morning, with "MVFR ceilings affecting the TAF sites through 16Z, with greater chances at KILN/KCMH/KLCK where some MVFR ceilings are in the prevailing groups." The outlook does not bode entirely well for flyers, as the potential for recurring showers and thunderstorms could cause intermittent periods of reduced visibility and ceiling through to Friday.
