Ohioans in the Columbus, Cincinnati, and surrounding Wilmington areas: prepare for a muggy and stormy weekend ahead. An update from the National Weather Service has outlined expectations for scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a weakening frontal system is expected to play a key role over the next few days. As mentioned in their Area Forecast Discussion, warm and humid conditions are not expected to break until a slightly stronger cold front moves through on Monday, dropping temperatures to more comfortable levels.
For today, the weakening cold front is expected to stall along the I-70 corridor, south of which scattered storms are anticipated to develop in response to the warm, humid air mass. The forecast suggests, though, that the story isn't all bad. With weak forcing, storm coverage remains limited, and although light winds aloft can dampen storm intensity, those in its path may still encounter an isolated gusty wind or two, especially in the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen, according to the NWS update. High temperatures are slated to reach the mid to upper 80s, while dewpoints stubbornly linger in the low 70s, south of the frontal boundary.
Come evening time, expect the front to dissolve and a stronger likelihood of fog development, especially in river valleys. The National Weather Service conveys a sense of caution about this, noting the potential for fog to expand beyond those areas, although overnight cloud cover remains a question mark. Consequently, fog coverage in their predictive models is currently conservative; however, future updates may adjust this view.
On Sunday, a wind shift at 850mb indicates a weak moisture return, most noticeable to the southwest. Shower and storm chances climb again during afternoon hours, especially near the Tri-State area and northern Kentucky, as another shortwave treks closer, reports the NWS. The start of the workweek promises the highest probability of precipitation alongside the possibility of some severe weather. According to the forecast, damaging winds will be the primary threat, with the NWS mentioning severe potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The cold front is expected to traverse the region late Monday night into Tuesday, bringing additional chances of rain.
Aviators should plan accordingly, as isolated to scattered storms may disrupt conditions near terminals, with a mix of VFR and potential MVFR visibilities due to fog. The NWS aviation outlook cautions that thunderstorm risks extend through Monday, predominantly in the afternoon and early evening hours. As for Ohioans on the ground, it seems like umbrellas and patience with our capricious climate will be necessary accompaniments through the coming days.
