As high pressure makes its way into the Central Pacific, Honolulu residents can expect a drier air flow from the east to replace the current moisture-rich conditions over the coming days. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, the weakening lower pressure to the northwest will give way to moderate coastal and higher terrain trade winds that are expected to persist through mid-week. The welcomed shift suggests that showery weather will slowly but surely become less frequent, with a focus remaining on windward slopes.
Recent weather patterns have seen a mid level trough and upper low influence create substantial rainfall, particularly in Kauai where overnight rain has impacted local stream levels. The National Weather Service report detailed how "The heaviest rain fell parallel to Kauai's high ridgelines with half an inch to inch hourly rates lifting local streams downstream of Mount Waialeale (Wainiha) to flood stage." The subsequent movement of the said precipitation is now decreasing the threat, and it's projected to veer away from Kauai as the week progresses.
On the marine forecast, a strengthening high pressure system is on track to amplify trade winds which currently necessitate a Small Craft Advisory. The advisory, which the National Weather Service cautions will be in effect until 6 PM HST Monday, covers Maalaea Bay as well as several water channels and areas around the Big Island. Surfers might like to know that a mix of southerly swells will continue to sustain wave heights along certain shorelines. However, east facing shores will only see minor choppy conditions, and there's little action expected along the north facing shores.
While the early part of the week remains under a low fire weather concern due to previous rainfall, a dry forecast could quickly heighten the threat of wildfires. "Drier conditions this week will begin to awaken a heightened situational awareness to the increased wildfire threat," the National Weather Service has identified. Numbers like the Keetch-Byram Drought Index surpassing 600 combined with dropping afternoon humidity levels are clear indicators that vigilance is crucial, even if the immediate threat level seems low.
