Residents in and around Pittsburgh should brace for a weekend peppered with thunderstorms and potential flash floods, as detailed in a forecast from the National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA. According to the forecast, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue today as a front lifts north across the area, bringing the possibility of locally heavy rain and strong wind gusts during some of the storms.
Today's weather scenario involves an eastward-moving shortwave that may reduce storm activity following its morning passage; however, another shortwave is forecasted to follow behind, precipitating additional thunderstorms mainly north of Pittsburgh this afternoon. The National Weather Service notes that the most extensive coverage of storms is expected to remain north of the city. The weather service indicates a "Marginal Risk" for severe storms today, with conditions ripe for heavy rainfall, especially in areas north of Pittsburgh, where precipitable water values—how meteorologists measure the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere if it were all to fall as rain—peak between 1.8 and 2.0 inches.
Convection, or the transfer of heat through fluid movement, particularly refers to the rising movement of warmer air, which should subside after the initial wave. However, scattered storms will persist from Pittsburgh southwards. There is some potential for damaging wind gusts again today, with mid-level dry air in place. The forecasters, however, are signaling a vigil for possibly more organized storms. Fringe effects will likely see humidity levels spike, with heat indices in the 90s for much of the surrounding storm-churned region.
Precipitation is not scheduled for respite, with another in the series of shortwaves set to cross the region overnight into Sunday, maintaining the threat of more storms coupled with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, the storms on Sunday could organize into a more severe weather scenario as the front moves southeast across the region and a change in direction of wind flow follows its passage, the National Weather Service adds that 0-6km shear near 30kt, and W-NW flow aloft could result in a Marginal Risk for severe storms.
Aviation interests are not immune; patchy fog will challenge early flights until conditions improve by mid-morning, but scattered showers and storms may impact flights into the afternoon and evening hours. The coming week offers a mixed bag of heat, potential isolated storms, and a return to hotter and drier weather by Monday as high pressure begins to assert control. However, tropical tranquility is poised to be punctuated by Wednesday night into Thursday, when shower and thunderstorm chances surge anew. The Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia tri-state area can expect relief by the end of the week as cooler, less humid weather settles in with high pressure once again in charge.
