The National Weather Service has issued a weather update that may dampen spirits across Ohio, particularly in Columbus, Cincinnati, and beyond. If you thought the summer would bring in a wave of dry heat, guess again. The NWS forecast, as gleaned from their latest discussion, puts us square in the midst of “periods of showers and storms... particularly midweek and beyond.” It’s shaping up to be a wetter scenario than some might have hoped for at this stage of July.
On the specifics, the NWS cites “a seasonably warm and humid pattern” that’s stubbornly holding on through the week. What’s more, the end of the week might deliver “episodes of heavy rain and flooding potential,” so keep the sandbags close if you're in a prone area. Sunday saw a diligent front crawl southeastward, bringing more moisture but not drying out the air as much as one might have liked. This lingering humidity means chances of pop-up showers and thunderstorms are sticking around, especially near the I-71 corridor.
Temperature-wise, don’t expect any relief from the midsummer heat as the mercury rises to the mid to upper 80s with dew points lazily hovering in the "comfortably sticky" zone of the upper 60s to lower 70s. It doesn’t help that storm clusters, intensifying through Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, are slated to head our way, increasing the likelihood of a wet work week start. “The latest guidance suggests that TSRA will increase in coverage near/past midnight initially across EC IN and the Miami Valley into the Tri-State, moving very slowly off to the ENE through the remainder of the night,” the NWS states in their report.
Heading into Monday, it seems the atmosphere decided to hold on to above-normal Precipitable Water (PW) values. Translation: expect “SCT SHRA/TSRA through the afternoon, particularly S of I-70,” with the potential for heavy rain and the unfortunate likelihood of isolated flooding. Regarding severe storms, the risk seems low, but when it comes to downpours, it’s better to be prepared than surprised. The week continues with this wet motif, promising "above normal PWATs persist over the region" and the seeming inevitability of showers and thunderstorms peaking each afternoon.
With an eye towards later this week, there’s considerable concern for flooding as a front from the Great Lakes hustles a visit. This guest aligns neatly with a robust upper level jet streak, making for an efficient rain-making duo. And as if that wasn’t enough, a loose Gulf Coast system could hitch a ride northward, piling on even more moisture. "The threat for flooding increases moreso into Thursday," warns the NWS. So, for those with outdoor plans or vulnerabilities to heavy rain – stay alert, stay safe, and maybe invest in a quality umbrella or two.
