Those in Baltimore hoping for summer sunshine this week will have to hold on a little longer. The National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC predicts a stalled frontal boundary will keep temperatures well below the August average until at least mid-week. While Tuesday will see folks wrapped in a cloak of persistent low stratus clouds, a bit of warmth is on the way on Wednesday as the sluggish front moves northward as a warm front and temperatures climb to the 80s.
Into the details, Tuesday's forecast talks of a strong anticyclone over central Quebec and a cold air damming signature, leading to an onshore flow that's saturating the troposphere's lowest kilometer. Caught in this weather pattern, Baltimore will cling to a drizzle or light showers today, mostly south of the I-95 corridor, with rainfall barely tipping over a tenth of an inch. Despite these conditions, don't hold out for any cool temperature records; we're only looking at a modest rise from the morning's mid-60s to low 70s, capping off at low to mid 70s.
However, as variable as the winds, Thursday presents an upbeat in the form of the wandering Hurricane Erin, out at sea but impacting our winds nonetheless. While the hurricane itself will stay clear of the Baltimore area, it's expected to send some northerly gusts our way, which may reach up to 25 mph. As Thursday comes to a close, Erin’s nudging helps usher in a cooler night, with temperatures expected to chill down into the 50s to mid-60s for most areas.
Looking toward the weekend, conditions are set to dry out as Erin tracks further northeast and high pressure takes its stead over the Mid-Atlantic. This lends to Friday and Saturday scoring a return to dry conditions and 80s for daytime highs, ideal for those longing to indulge in some late-summer outdoor activities. But keep umbrellas close; another front is due early next week, threatening to bring precipitation back to the region.
Mariners take note: Small Craft Advisories remain in play over the southern waters until 6 AM this morning. It's a trickier tale with erratic winds, which could result in advisories being extended. Hurricane Erin's presence, albeit distant, is expected to whip up northerly gusts over the waters as we head into Wednesday and Thursday.
For those living shoreline adjacent, the week continues a vigilant watch for coastal flooding, with sensitive spots like Annapolis anticipated to reach near Moderate flood stage tonight. With inflating anomalies holding strong in the east-northeasterly flow, it’s a situation to monitor closely, especially as Thursday's tides could swell further with Erin's dance over the Atlantic.
