As the National Weather Service in Cleveland reports, an early hint of fall is sweeping over the Great Lakes region. The main weather story through Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service, is an influx of much colder temperatures, "bringing an unusually cool weather pattern for the end of August." An upper level trough is digging out across the region, continuing to influence the weather with its deep cyclonic flow over the next couple of days.
While Monday began with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, an increase in clouds and lake effect rain showers, especially downwind of Lake Erie, is expected. Temperatures are dropping significantly, with highs just reaching the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. For Northeast Ohio (NEOH) and Northwest Pennsylvania (NWPA), high-res forecast guidance suggests that lake-induced CAPE values between 500 to 1000 J/KG will be sufficient for scattered lake effect rain showers and the possibility of embedded thunderstorms.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, "Instability clouds will redevelop on Tuesday with the daytime heating and colder air aloft," as per the National Weather Service. A few scattered rain showers across much of Northern Ohio are expected Tuesday afternoon, with the continuation of lake effect showers in NEOH and NWPA. Highs are anticipated to hover in the mid-60s to around 70 degrees.
As the week progresses, a transition is in store. High pressure from the Midwest will usher in clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures. By Wednesday, the weather over Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania is set to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with highs rising to the upper 60s and middle 70s. However, another cold front is on the heels of this brief respite, bringing with it the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
In marine news, rough conditions are expected to persist through Monday with northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots, as reported by the National Weather Service. Boaters should exercise caution as Small Craft Advisories are in place until this evening. Here you can stay updated with the latest advisories and lake effect conditions.
Last but not least, there's a possibility that we could see record low temperatures for this time of year. As we move into the early part of the week, the forecast suggests some areas may challenge or break records for daily low minimum temperatures set decades ago. The National Weather Service notes that the previous daily record low minimum temperatures for Toledo were 45 (1964) and may see similar figures during this unseasonal chill.
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