Honolulu residents can expect a mix of weather conditions in the coming days, with Hurricane Henriette stirring up the climate stew. According to the National Weather Service Honolulu, while Henriette is tracking northwest of the state, a low level trough is set to bring a spike in clouds and showers midweek, though trade winds are anticipated to strengthen and bring some relief towards the end of the week. The moderate to heavy showers observed mainly within the channels point to the current convergence zones, with the sea breezes kicking in during peak daytime heat that's contributing to these conditions, NWS forecasts.
The hurricane, positioned about 500 miles northeast of Kauai, is causing some disruptions, including to the trade wind flow – yet the local populace can expect things to slowly trend back to the normal with winds picking back up, while "stable conditions is expected Tuesday into Wednesday," as per the NWS discussion. In the more immediate term, residents are advised to brace for what might be some sticky weather, given the humidity levels, as shown by the dewpoints climbing over the 70-degree mark, which those of us on the island know can make things rather uncomfortable.
As far as air travel is concerned, the day will start off mostly clear, but with anticipated increases in cloudiness and showers as the day progresses, pilots should be on the lookout for potential changes in visibility, "thus the day will start out with mostly VFR conditions with possible MVFR building in the afternoon with showers," according to NWS's aviation forecast. And while no AIRMETs are currently in effect, those could change including a need for AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration particularly on the Big Island if conditions shift as they are sometimes wont to do.
Mariners aren’t left out of the equation either with trade winds forecast to regain their moxie post-Henriette, elevating into the moderate to locally strong range – a notation that vessel operators should definitely keep an ear pinned back for Small Craft Advisories, which would affect how they navigate through the typically windier waters and channels near Maui and the Big Island, no advisories are in place, but things are subject to shift dramatically at sea like they are on land. Beach-goers will find the south swell showing signs of calming down, potentially leading to the cancellation of the High Surf Advisory later in the day, but don't throw away your surfboards just yet as there’s still a pulse keeping the south shores lively through the weekend.
On the fire weather front, no critical thresholds are expected, but anyone keyed into such things will understand that this sort of forecast can be as stable as a house of cards in a breeze, given the fluctuating conditions of the wind and moisture levels around the islands, "Critical fire weather thresholds are not expect over the next couple of days as winds will remain light to moderate with dewpoint values near or above 70 degrees for some areas," per the NWS Fire Weather section. The relative stability promised by the trade winds later in the week should, however, reduce the risks of any sudden sparks turning into something less manageable.
