Heads up, Orlando. The week starts with a continuance of life-threatening rip currents – a warning that has been firmly in place and is expected to stretch into early next week, possibly. However, this isn't the only concern as the National Weather Service Melbourne, FL highlights elevated rain chances through today, before things return closer to normal moisture levels. As if on cue to remind us that summer's grip remains unrelenting, mid-week brings hotter conditions, with heat index values steeply climbing to somewhere between a toasty 102 to 107 degrees.
Don't hold your breath for those hoping for a respite from this stickiness. The culprit, as described in the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion, is “unseasonably deep moisture (PWATs > 2 inches)” coupled with a lurking disturbance aloft. The ensuing weather pattern spells out storms with "locally heavy downpours, brief gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes." Those steamy conditions are set to simmer over the next few days, and if you were hoping that rain might cool things down, think again. Clouds and rainfall might keep peak heat indices slightly tempered, but they're set to stay uncomfortably high.
Looking forward into the week, the pressure gradient keeps cool with a persistent weak onshore flow, which "will continue thru the period." According to the Area Forecast Discussion, though moisture content won't be setting any records, it'll hover at levels to make even the steeliest of us a tad grumpy. The primary concern, the report notes, is the threat of locally heavy rainfall, which may cause not just bad hair days but "mostly minor flooding issues, but may lead to isolated instances of more substantial flooding of roadways and poor drainage areas."
Mariners aren't getting off easy, either. A small but tenacious (ENE/NE) long-period swell continues to churn, with the seas forecast to remain around 2-3 feet, potentially inching up to 4 feet well offshore by Monday. Shower and storm activity maintains lofty appearances throughout the period, which could see rain chances begin to trend down to normal early next week. But, caution is advised as winds and seas could scale to greater heights near stronger showers and storms.
For flyers, the weather roulette continues. VFR (Visual Flight Rules) hold outside of convection for the most part, but the Atlantic isn't outright sparing airports from the action. The AVIATION section of the report advises scattered showers along the coast through the morning hours, and high coverage of showers and storms comes in the afternoon and evening. Orlando's interior may sigh with relief around 04Z, as shower and storm activity diminishes overnight, but coastal regions remain on watch for scattered showers to continue flirting with the shorelines.
