Oahu residents should expect a mix of light winds and scattered showers heading into the week, with potential for more unstable weather conditions, including thunderstorms, by midweek. According to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, a trough near the islands today will result in light winds, and an upper-level low moving south will likely intensify the showers come Sunday night. The NWS indicates a "brief uptick in winds expected" today, with an increased chance of thunderstorms starting Tuesday night.
While mariners can expect weakened trade winds near the Hawaiian waters, a mix of northwestern and north-northeastern swells will keep surf conditions modest on north-facing shores. Reporting a swell mix, the NWS observes, will maintain a "small surf along north facing shores today, fading into Sunday morning." Look out for a more significant swell, "a moderate to large long period northwest (320 deg) swell," that's poised to stir things up starting Sunday afternoon.
For aviators, VFR conditions will reign over most parts of the region, but with a caveat for possible afternoon sea breezes and interior showers, particularly for the smaller islands. With light east to southeast winds persisting for the next couple of days, "localized afternoon sea breezes may bring an increase in interior clouds and showers over the smaller islands," the NWS forecast details, noting the potential need for an AIRMET for mountain obscuration if conditions warrant.
As far as marine conditions go, the upper-level disturbance could result in enhanced showers throughout the local areas entering this weekend. Long-range guidance by the NWS suggests the mid-next-week could see "increasing southeasterly winds" leading to a more unstable weather pattern with possible thunderstorms. As these conditions approach, "an unstable weather pattern" with possible "increasing shower coverage and thunderstorms" is anticipated—a warning for those eager to head out to sea.
On a lighter note, those concerned about fire hazards can breathe easier. "Light winds and isolated to scattered showers will help maintain fire weather below critical thresholds for the next several days," assures the NWS. In terms of surf, south and east-facing shores will remain calm, with a small, medium-period swell expected due to Tropical Cyclone Priscilla in the East Pacific.
Coastal regions also got a heads up with the NWS issuing a Coastal Flood Statement, in effect this morning due to peak high tides associated with lunar cycles, which may cause minor flooding. Although the forecast projects the statement will likely be canceled post the high tide peak today.
