Steel City residents can expect a relatively stable week in terms of weather, with temperatures hovering near to slightly above the seasonal average. According to the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, the forecast, which was released early Sunday morning, anticipates increased sunshine today due to upper subsidence, which should boost daytime temperatures a few notches above the norm, the report revealed.
Overnight, light winds and clear skies are in store as the region experiences weak warm advection from the southwesterly flow ahead of a northern stream shortwave. Most areas are projected to see temperatures fall to near normal for this time of year, although some valley spots could experience cooler conditions due to better decoupling effects. Moving into Monday and Tuesday, the forecast suggests a low probability of showers, mainly concentrated along the northern counties, but overall, the outlook is dry and seasonable.
The National Weather Service's long-term forecast indicates the next weather system will roll in on Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. However, there is uncertainty regarding the southern extent of the precipitation field associated with this system. Ensembles strongly favor the trough center remaining north of the region, but vary in the degree of depth, the weather service statement notes. Rainfall accumulations are expected to be minimal, with a low 15-30% chance of totals exceeding one-quarter of an inch.
Thursday should usher in a brief cooldown, bringing dry weather as the high-pressure system returns under shortwave ridging. The pattern looks to remain active through the latter part of the week, with the risk of periodic precipitation starting Friday. While forecast models suggest variations in forthcoming trough depths and the consequent timing, details on the extent of cooling or any potential temperature rebound remain hazy. The report indicates it's unlikely that any weather would be severe enough to warrant significant attention, though the possibility of higher elevation snow could surface in late-week discussions.
In aviation news, VFR conditions are likely to persist at over 80% through the week, with the high-pressure system in place. The National Weather Service foresees light south-southwesterly winds today, calming overnight and picking up again on Monday afternoon. Despite the expected weather disturbance mid-week, confidence remains low that it will have any major impact on area terminals.
