As residents in Baltimore prepare for the holiday season, the weather appears to have its own plans, shifting between warm and cold fronts. According to the National Weather Service, Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC, a warm front has made its way into the area, but don't get too comfortable, a cold front will be hot on its heels this evening. And if you were dreaming of a white Christmas, hold that thought – another transient high pressure on Wednesday might give you a glimmer of hope before it could be dashed away by a warm front come Thursday. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC reports.
Hanging around the 40s in north central and northeast Maryland today, with an unseasonal jump to near 60 along the central Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia, today's temperatures are playing a little fast and loose. As the weather service notes, low pressure moving toward Lake Superior is dragging several bands of precipitation across the warm advection regime ahead of it. Now, most observations have been tipping just above freezing – so while warmer air is trying to settle in, you might want to watch your step in the morning, as localized freezing temperatures might make for some tricky conditions.
Looking ahead at the remainder of the week, Wednesday might offer a brief respite under a surface high pressure before another shortwave trough and isentropic lift bring back the rains, possibly even becoming wintry precipitation in northeastern Maryland – although that's still on the fence. "Most of the area will have temperatures safely above freezing, even in the mountains," the weather service adds, tempering expectations of a widespread winter wonderland come Christmas.
By the weekend, another disturbance may usher in a significant cooldown, realigning our expectations from the unseasonably warm weather to a more fitting sub-freezing high, particularly for the northern half of the forecast area. "Some guidance that has yet to make it into the NBM has highs not making it above freezing for the northern half of the FA Friday," alludes to the possibility of waking up to a landscape glazed with ice rather than dusted with snow, the National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC anticipates.
In the meantime, aviators can expect mostly light rain at the terminals this morning, with some potential for a bit of snow to mix in, especially near MTN. Flights later in the day are expected to experience better conditions as the cold front clears the air, although westerly winds may bring a few more clouds to linger through the night. VFR conditions with gusty winds are on deck for Wednesday, as per the weather service's aviation insights.
Sailors navigating Chesapeake Bay and the lower Potomac will want to heed the small craft advisory in effect through the morning. While south winds may ease off a bit in the afternoon, westerly winds in the wake of tonight's cold front could pick up again. The weather service warns that "additional SCAs will likely be needed late tonight through Wednesday afternoon with gusts of 20-25 kt."
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