Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC are sounding off on the latest weather developments impacting Baltimore and its surroundings this weekend. According to their early morning analysis, an imposing high-pressure system is sinking over Quebec and is wedging south, setting up a classic cold air damming scenario that's veering into our region from east of the Appalachian mountains. This pressure performer is shoving high-level clouds our way, and they're calling for spotty light warm advection showers across the Ohio Valley, likely fizzling out once they hit the drier air to the east. National Weather Service reports indicate that, barring surprises, measurable precipitation might hold off until the afternoon.
The sleety snag is set to skid in mid-afternoon to mid-evening, coinciding with a mid-level trough passage, especially along the I-68/I-70 corridor and the Allegheny Front. There's a watchful eye on potential icing conditions there—a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from the morning through the evening hours. In a statement obtained by the National Weather Service, the highest precipitation amounts continue to be along the I-68/I-70 corridor and along the Allegheny Front, with a secondary increase east of I-95 as the surface low develops off the coast. Yet, with the likely scenario of light precipitation and the swift southerly shift of winds this evening, freezing rain threats might just glaze over in some areas, particularly in the southern parts of the advisory zone.
Come Saturday, high pressure is due to briefly make a comeback from the north, but don't expect a bright and sunny tag-along. The region could get graced with some patchy drizzle and persistent low clouds, keeping the mercury boxed in the upper 30s to mid-40s range. As for Sunday, a frontal system is set to swoop in late, but with the warm air surging aloft before the surface gets the memo, prospects of peeling back those stubborn clouds seem slim, leaving us in the likely limbo of 40s for another day.
Peering into next week, prepare to brace for a striking shift. As the mercury climbs ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system, rain showers will dominate the discourse on Monday. But make no mistake—the trailing cold air won't be shy, whipping winds and sending wind chills diving into the teens and 20s by Monday night. It's shaping up to be a powerful punch of winter as we bid December goodbye. Given the amplified pattern, strong pressure gradient in the amplified flow, and strong cold/dry advection, wind gusts could feasibly exceed 40 mph for a good portion of the area, according to the latest predictions by the National Weather Service.
As for the mariners among us, the waters are set to reflect the tumult up above. Small Craft Advisories might crop up Saturday, with gale conditions potentially gusting through come late Monday into Tuesday. And if you're set on coastal activities, be mindful that treacherous tides might flirt with minor flood stages over the weekend and into early next week, the National Weather Service cautions.
