Bay Area residents and visitors, say goodbye to any dreams of a white Christmas, as the National Weather Service in Cleveland confirms that this holiday season's weather is set to be low-impact and snow-free. The latest update indicates a weak cold front passing through today, with high pressure arriving in tow for a brief cameo tonight and into Wednesday, leading to dry conditions and partly to mostly cloudy skies. While we've experienced light rain in Northeast OH and Northwest PA, event turnouts like temperatures soaring into the 40s for most areas, it's looking like Findlay and Marion might be basking in near 50-degree warmth this afternoon.
Tonight's temperatures will dip into the mid-20s to near 30 degrees, but fears of a freezing scenario have been quashed thanks to readings above the surface freeze point limiting concerns for icy rain, only a special weather statement alerts to a "brief/marginal potential" according to NWS, and looks to just about sum up the situation. Lows tonight are anchored in the mid 20s to near 30 with those partial clouds still hanging about. Wednesday's high pressure and Thursday's subtler pressure system are expected to bring a dry Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, however, there is the less than welcome news of likely rain and minimal chances of any snowfall. High temperatures for Thursday continue to show signs of a downward trend from earlier forecasts.
As the weak low pressure system drifts its way across the western Great Lakes, residents in the region may need to keep an eye out for light rain, particularly in the western and southern areas. The anticipated precipitation is dampened by the lack of deeper moisture and strength in the atmospheric lift. Surprisingly, the forecast for early Thursday morning spins another yarn of potential for a spot of freezing rain in the Northeast OH and Northwest PA region if temperatures dare to dip beneath freezing.
Friday's concerning weather plot thickens with disagreement on temperature predictions and precipitation types, owing to several models showing increasingly cooler trends. "It may be cold/dry enough aloft initially to support a bit of snow/sleet across far Northeast OH/Northwest PA as precip spreads in, though generally liquid is favored," as reported by NWS Cleveland office. Notably, the forewarned mixed precipitation comes late Thursday night and early Friday could turn things a bit more treacherous over to rain later in the day for cities like Toledo, Cleveland, and Akron/Canton, nonetheless, model discrepancies continue to keep forecasters on their toes.
Boaters will have to navigate a changing marine forecast as well, with a cold front this afternoon churning up wave heights up to 3-5 feet off Cleveland's shores and winds veering from west southwesterly to westerly. By Wednesday morning, the turbulent waters should quiet down, setting the stage for relatively calm conditions going into the weekend. However, come Sunday, an amplified trough is eyeing the Great Lakes and Northeast, bringing colder temperatures, the possibility of lake effect snow, and a reminder that despite the tepid holiday forecast, winter is far from over.
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