As the calendar flips to the brink of 2026, the Texas political landscape is heating up with closely contested primary races, particularly for the U.S. Senate seats. With primary day set for March 3, candidates are in the thick of their campaigns, and recent polling suggests tight battles on both sides of the political spectrum.
The latest polls indicate a three-way dance within the Republican Party, where incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is contending with fellow Republicans Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt. According to a Dec. 4 poll by J.L. Partners, cited by FOX 7 Austin, Paxton narrowly leads with 29% of likely Republican primary voters. Cornyn and Hunt trail closely, both sitting at 24%, while 23% remain undecided. Cornyn's challenge in maintaining the favor of a conservative base, which finds appeal in Paxton's critique of Cornyn's long tenure, leaves the incumbent senator's future uncertain.
On the Democratic front, the fight for the Senate nomination likewise presents voters with a decision point. U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and Texas State Rep. James Talarico are neck and neck, as a recent survey by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Survey Center at Texas Southern University shows Crockett leading with 51% and Talarico close behind at 43%. Crockett, who filed her Senate run just before the deadline, has emerged as a vocal Democratic figure. In contrast, Talarico leverages his social media presence to influence the political conversation.
Highlighting the dynamics on the Democratic side, Joshua Block of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas told FOX 7 Austin, "With Crockett and Talarico, you have two very different style candidates, and it’s going to be interesting to see how the Democratic electorate reacts to both." Block also noted that Democrats are expected to bring kitchen table issues to the forefront, especially as Republicans grapple with the state's affordability crisis.
The races further down the ticket also grab attention, where candidates like Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin are seeking Democratic nominations for governor and lieutenant governor, respectively. However, they face a significant hurdle in name recognition, as the same polling center found that a large percentage of voters are unfamiliar with these candidates. This could lead to a critical influx of outside funding and support for whoever emerges as the U.S. Senate nominee from the Democratic camp, suggested Mark P. Jones from Rice University in an interview with CBS Austin.
Early voting in Texas begins on February 17, injecting a sense of urgency into the campaigns as they now enter the final stretch before the primary elections. The outcomes could pivotally shape both state and national politics in what appears to be a watershed year for Texas. If no candidate in these races claims over 50%, a runoff primary will be scheduled for the end of May, ensuring that these races will stay in the spotlight well into 2026.
