California’s housing market took another hit late last year, with homebuying falling to the second-lowest November level in 21 years. Many would-be buyers stayed parked on the sidelines while prices remained stubbornly high, caught between elevated mortgage rates, lofty asking prices, and a few pockets of surprisingly strong demand.
According to The Mercury News, citing ATTOM data, just 23,317 existing and newly built homes closed in California in November. That total sits about 30% below the long-run average and marks the second-weakest November since 2005. The paper notes a three-year monthly sales average of roughly 26,428 deals and reports that three-year activity is about 31% under the long-term pace, a reminder of how thin homebuying remains across much of the state.
The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) paints the picture with a different brush. Its seasonally adjusted, annualized tally put existing single-family home sales at about 287,940 in November, with a statewide median single-family price of $852,680. Those figures are based on MLS data and a method that converts one month of closings into an annual sales pace, which helps explain why headlines built on ATTOM data and C.A.R. numbers can look like they are talking about different markets.
Interest-rate backdrop
Mortgage rates remain the biggest wet blanket on buyer demand. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate slipped to about 6.06% in mid-January 2026, offering a bit of breathing room to rate-weary shoppers, according to Freddie Mac. The same PMMS series captured the spike above 7% in late 2022, a jump that sharply inflated monthly payments and pushed many potential buyers out of the game, as noted in Freddie Mac’s late-2022 release. That dramatic run-up, followed by only gradual easing, helps explain why purchase activity remained choppy through late 2025.
What the numbers mean for affordability
The payment math is still brutal for a lot of households. Using the November median sales figure, The Mercury News estimates a typical mortgage payment of roughly $3,632 per month and reports that payments are about 94% higher than they were six years ago. The outlet also notes a typical down payment of $147,000. Even small moves in rates can shift those numbers, but the blend of high prices and hefty upfront cash keeps many first-time and lower-income buyers locked out.
Why the datasets do not always match
Part of the confusion stems from what each report is actually counting. Some data trackers tally every closing going back to 2005 and include new construction. MLS-based reports usually focus only on existing single-family sales and then convert that monthly action into a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Those differences in scope and method, combined with wide regional variation inside California, can flip how a particular month looks on a chart. A statewide headline can sound dire while certain neighborhoods are still seeing bidding wars, or vice versa.
Outlook
C.A.R. economists expect mortgage rates to drift lower in 2026, but they are not promising a free fall. “Mortgage rates are expected to continue declining in 2026, but the decrease is unlikely to be dramatic,” C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine wrote in the group’s November release. If borrowing costs keep easing a bit, sales activity could slowly thaw, although the affordability gap suggests any rebound will be patchy and heavily regional.
In the near term, buyers and sellers are stuck in a cautious staring contest. Buyers are watching for sustained rate relief that meaningfully trims payments, while sellers have to price for the pockets of demand that still exist rather than the boom-time market they might remember. For those who want to dig deeper into the numbers and methodology, C.A.R.’s November release and the data summary reported by The Mercury News are good places to start.
