A new poll out this week suggests California’s big idea to slap a one-time tax on billionaires is far from a slam dunk, with support stuck below 50 percent and a tight signature deadline looming for backers who want it on the November ballot.
What the poll found
The Mellman Group survey of 800 likely California voters found support for the proposal dropping under a majority after respondents heard arguments from both sides, with roughly 46% in favor and 44% opposed, plus about 14% still undecided. In a separate read of the same sample, 48% said they would vote yes if the measure were on the ballot today. The poll was funded by an undisclosed group of wealthy residents, according to the campaign reporting and consulting community cited by The Sacramento Bee.
Proponents push back
SEIU‑UHW, which is leading the ballot effort, insists its internal numbers do not match that picture. "Internal polling shows asking ultra‑wealthy billionaires to pay a modest, one‑time tax resonates with the vast majority of voters," Suzanne Jimenez, the union’s chief of staff, said in comments reported by The Sacramento Bee. Supporters are betting that once voters focus on where the money goes, the numbers will climb.
Governor and business groups mobilize
Gov. Gavin Newsom has publicly come out against the plan, warning it could hurt California’s competitiveness and saying he hopes to keep the measure from ever reaching the ballot. Business interests are lining up with him, and both sides are already spending heavily. Anti-tax committees have pulled in millions of dollars as the fight ramps up, according to reporting from AP News.
What the initiative would do
As filed with state officials, the proposal would impose a one-time tax of up to 5% on taxpayers and trusts with covered assets valued at more than $1 billion, with most of the revenue earmarked for health-care programs. The California Secretary of State’s office provides the official title and summary and notes that the Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates the measure would likely bring a temporary bump in state revenues, while also warning it could trigger an ongoing drop in income tax receipts if some wealthy residents decide to leave the state. California Secretary of State.
Why this poll matters
To qualify for the November ballot, backers need roughly 874,641 valid signatures, a high bar that usually requires both money and momentum. Early polling under the 50% mark gives opponents room to frame the debate and court those undecided voters. The wrangling has already coincided with some wealthy Californians making preemptive moves in their financial filings and real-estate holdings, which critics point to as evidence that the measure could put the state’s tax base at risk. Business coverage has chronicled some of those shifts, including examples highlighted by Forbes.
What to watch next
The campaign must submit its signatures by late June to make the ballot, and both supporters and opponents are watching for new independent polls, big checks, and high-profile endorsements as possible signs of which way the wind is blowing. Hoodline has already walked through the initial filing and rollout of the measure back in October, and local readers can look to that earlier coverage for a refresher on how the push began and what might come next. Campaign Seeks 5% Wealth Tax.
Legal and enforcement questions
The measure’s use of retroactive valuation dates, the rules for valuing private companies, and the mechanics of enforcing the tax are all likely to be fertile ground for legal challenges if voters approve it, according to experts. Detailed legal analyses note that the drafters tried to include anti-avoidance provisions, but that courts and state agencies would probably end up deciding how far those rules reach in practice. For a deeper dive into the constitutional and implementation issues, see the practice-area overview from Baker Botts.
