With the March 3 Democratic primary fast approaching, the race for Texas's newly redrawn 33rd Congressional District has tilted toward former Rep. Colin Allred. A recent district-level snapshot shows him well ahead of Rep. Julie Johnson, though strategists caution that late turnout and a wave of endorsements could still keep things interesting down the stretch.
Poll Snapshot Shows Allred With Big Lead
A GBAO Strategies poll, circulated in a campaign press release and reposted by Quorum Report, found Allred at 58% and Johnson at 30% among likely voters, with 12% still undecided, according to Quorum Report. On paper, that is a comfortable lead, and the Allred campaign has leaned on the numbers to argue he has the organization and name recognition to clear a majority in the March primary.
New Lines, Old Rivalries
The matchup exists because of mid-decade redistricting that reshaped the Dallas map and set up a high-profile rematch between a predecessor and successor in the same seat, per The Texas Tribune. The Cook Political Report rates the district "Solid D" and notes its heavy Democratic lean despite the new lines, according to Cook Political Report. Hoodline previously reported on how Allred ended his Senate bid to return to the House contest in TX-33 in an earlier piece titled Allred Ends Senate Bid.
Money and Endorsements
Campaign filings show Allred heading into the final stretch with a larger war chest than Johnson, a fundraising edge visible in public finance records from the Federal Election Commission. Johnson, by contrast, has leaned heavily on establishment backing, with top House Democratic leaders publicly endorsing her for reelection, a move reported by The Dallas Morning News.
What To Watch Before March 3
Early voting in Texas runs from Feb. 17 through Feb. 27, and Election Day is March 3. If no candidate tops 50% in the primary, a runoff is scheduled for May 26, according to the Texas Secretary of State. Local turnout patterns, which campaign manages to lock down the remaining undecided voters, and how Hispanic precincts in Dallas perform will determine whether Allred's polling advantage holds when votes are counted.
Polls are snapshots, and with early voting already underway, the race still has room to tighten before March 3. The New York Times' interactive poll tracker aggregates district-level polling and will update if new surveys land before primary day, per The New York Times.
