Monday, February 16, 2026: Chicago is starting the week in a haze, with patchy fog, a very mild feel, and temperatures set to jump into the low to mid 60s on a gusty southwest wind. The morning fog may drag some commutes, but skies are expected to turn mostly sunny by afternoon. Highs near 64°F would be well above what we normally see this time of year and could threaten the long-standing February 16 record in parts of the region.
Afternoon Winds Pick Up
By afternoon, southwest winds are forecast to ramp up to around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts that could reach 30 mph. That will leave the lakefront feeling blustery and kick up choppy waves that are rough on smaller boats. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Illinois and Indiana nearshore waters from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. CST on Monday, February 16. The timing and details come from the National Weather Service in Chicago.
Record Warmth For Mid-February
Monday's surge of warmth, with highs projected in the mid 60s, may be enough to top the 58°F record for February 16, which dates back to 1921. The mild pattern has held firm through the first half of the month and is on track to deliver more near-record readings in parts of Chicagoland. For a deeper look at the record potential and this unusually warm stretch, see NBC Chicago.
Late-Week Showers And Elevated Fire Concerns
Two low pressure systems are expected to bring rain chances late Tuesday night, February 17, into early Wednesday morning, February 18, with showers and a chance of thunderstorms during that period. Behind that, drier air and strong westerly winds are forecast Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph and minimum relative humidity dropping into the 20s. That combination will create an elevated fire weather window, so outdoor burning should be avoided and conditions watched closely. The National Weather Service Chicago outlines the timing and fire danger.
If you have plans on or near the lake, it may be worth shifting them inland for the afternoon and securing patio furniture or other lightweight items before the gusts kick up. Keep weather alerts turned on and check updated forecasts before heading out Tuesday evening, since the exact timing and coverage of showers and storms could still change.
