Thursday, March 12, 2026 — Tampa started the day steamy, with mostly clear skies, temperatures near 72F, and dew points hovering around 71F. The forecast still has highs climbing to about 82F, but a cold front sliding in later will flip the script, turning the afternoon stormy. Showers and thunderstorms are likely as the day wears on, with brief heavy downpours and gusty winds possible during the most active period.
Afternoon Storms and Timing
The National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin notes a slight chance of showers around noon, with a better shot at organized thunderstorms from early afternoon into the evening. Forecast guidance calls for southwest winds of 6 to 13 mph, with gusts up to 21 mph. Most areas are expected to see between a tenth and a quarter inch of rain, though some spots could pick up heavier totals. The main line of storms should push southeast across the metro during the afternoon, favoring inland neighborhoods and down-bay communities.
Drive and Bay Safety
Heavy rain and lightning will cut visibility and slow traffic, so build in extra time if you have afternoon plans and stick with low beams in any fog-prone stretches. Boaters are urged to stay off open water while storms are in the area, as onshore gusts will leave conditions choppy this afternoon. Transit riders should check HART service alerts or head out earlier to cushion for potential delays.
What's Next
Showery conditions remain elevated through the weekend as onshore flow returns, and another stronger cold front is expected on Monday. That one should usher in noticeably cooler, drier air by Tuesday, dropping highs into the upper 60s and lows into the 40s and 50s. There are no watches or warnings in effect for Tampa at this time, according to the National Weather Service.
