North Carolina has trimmed its gross greenhouse-gas emissions by about one-fifth since 2005, yet the state is still not on a solid track to hit carbon neutrality by 2050. The latest statewide inventory, released last Monday by the Department of Environmental Quality, finds that emissions from electricity generation and transportation have flattened and warns that net emissions could start climbing again over the next five to ten years. The report points to planned utility projects and fast-rising electricity demand, including from large AI data centers, as near-term threats to continued progress.
What the Inventory Found
The updated accounting covers emissions through 2022 and projects trends out to 2050. According to the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, gross emissions fell about 21% between 2005 and 2022, while net emissions, which factor in carbon absorbed by forests and other lands, dropped roughly 30%. The agency also projects that net emissions could rise about 7% from 2022 to 2030, driven largely by utility forecasts that show more natural-gas and coal use in the near term.
Why Emissions Are Stalling
Most of the energy-sector gains over the last decade came from shifting power plants from coal to natural gas and adding more renewable generation. That momentum has now slowed. As reported by WFAE, the inventory shows only modest reductions in transportation emissions and finds that emissions from both electricity generation and transportation have largely plateaued. The update stresses that this leveling off is not just a post-COVID bounce-back and underscores how grid planning and new large power customers could alter the state’s emissions trajectory.
AI Data Centers and the Power Squeeze
National analyses are sounding alarms that AI-scale data centers could sharply push up electricity demand. A DOE-backed study cited by Reuters found that U.S. data-center power consumption could nearly triple by 2028, a shift that would force major changes in long-range planning. Closer to home, WRAL reports that utilities including Duke Energy are reworking their plans to keep up with fast-growing loads and, in some cases, leaning on additional natural-gas capacity or delaying coal-plant retirements to maintain reliability during the build-out.
State Response and Next Steps
“This report shows that common sense policies to reduce our state’s carbon emissions have succeeded while our economy has flourished,” NCDEQ Secretary Reid Wilson said in a press release from NC DEQ. The department says the inventory will serve as a baseline for federal Climate Pollution Reduction Grant work and for state planning tools used to evaluate emissions-cutting options. Officials say the findings will feed into how the state targets grant spending and shape future rulemaking for transportation and power-sector planning.
Policy Choices Ahead
The release of the inventory comes as lawmakers and regulators debate whether to speed up electrification and grid modernization or accept a short-term rise in emissions tied to industrial and economic development. The politics are already tense. AP News reported that Gov. Josh Stein vetoed legislation last year that would have repealed an interim emissions-reduction mandate, a move that highlighted how climate targets and utility costs can collide. Advocates say the new inventory backs calls for faster deployment of clean energy, while utilities contend that planners have to weigh reliability and customer rates alongside emissions goals.
Bottom Line
For communities across North Carolina, the inventory serves as both a progress report and a warning. Emissions have fallen significantly since 2005, but the next decade could bring a rebound without sharper policy shifts and tighter coordination. State agencies, utilities, and local leaders now face a clear set of choices about how to power growth while protecting the climate and ratepayers.
