Knoxville rolled into Wednesday, March 25, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies and a brisk start near 44°F, but the chill will not last long. Temperatures are expected to rebound quickly to around 72°F this afternoon, with clouds giving way to mostly sunny skies and a light southwest breeze.
Afternoon Dryness Raises Fire Weather Concerns
By mid to late afternoon, relative humidity is expected to drop into the mid 20s to around 30 percent. That dry air, paired with mild temperatures, is setting up a day where a small spark could turn into a much bigger problem.
The National Weather Service's Morristown office is flagging what it calls "poor fire weather" conditions and notes that southwest winds are likely to strengthen on Thursday, which could push fire danger even higher. You can find more detail in the National Weather Service fire-weather outlook.
What To Expect Through The Weekend
On Thursday, March 26, Knoxville should warm into the upper 70s to around 80°F. Southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected, with gusts approaching 25 mph, which will keep fire concerns in play.
Rain chances go up on Friday, March 27, with showers likely after 8 a.m., mainly along and north of I-40. The high should reach near 78°F, and the chance of precipitation sits at roughly 70 percent. Colder air moves in Friday night, with temperatures dropping to around 39°F. Saturday looks cooler but brighter, with sunny conditions and highs near 60°F.
How To Stay Safe
If you were planning any outdoor burning, this is the time to hit pause. Low humidity and even modest wind can help flames spread quickly, whether it is a brush pile or a “quick” cleanup burn.
Knox County already has an open-burning restriction in place from late February. Before you light anything outdoors, check the Knox County Air Quality Management page for current rules and permit requirements.
Enjoy the brief warm stretch, but treat grills, burn piles, and powered equipment with extra caution. Friday's showers should help take the edge off the fire risk as the weekend approaches. For the latest forecast and any updated fire weather guidance, keep an eye on information from the National Weather Service and local officials through Thursday night.
