Thursday, March 5, 2026 - Tampa rolled out of bed to clear but swampy skies, with temperatures near 68°F and dew points hanging in the upper 60s. The morning stays mostly sunny, but that bright start is basically a setup for a steamy afternoon, as showers and thunderstorms bubble up and highs push into the mid to upper 80s.
Afternoon Storms Likely
Storms are expected to fire after 1 p.m., becoming most widespread from mid-afternoon into early evening. Forecasters put the afternoon chance of rain at about 60%, and any stronger cells could dump brief heavy downpours that cut visibility and slow the commute. Daytime totals should be on the lighter side for most spots, but more robust storms this evening could wring out a quarter to a half inch of rain in a few neighborhoods.
According to NWS Tampa Bay, the prime window for storms is after 1 p.m. Thursday, so the drive home is the one to watch.
Morning Fog And Muggy Nights
Low clouds and patchy fog may creep in late tonight and during the early mornings over the next few days. That means some drivers could face reduced visibility on top of the already sticky overnight air. We have been in this warm, humid pattern for a bit now, and you can see our earlier look at this warm, humid pattern for more context.
Weekend Outlook
The heat does not back off much heading into the weekend. Highs stay in the mid to upper 80s, with a daily chance of afternoon storms through Monday. The forecast discussion notes temperatures running 8–10 degrees above average, with some record highs on the table.
An easterly breeze each morning should flip to an onshore sea breeze in the afternoon, which will help spark isolated to scattered showers along the breeze boundary. For the fine print, check the latest forecast from NWS Tampa Bay.
What To Know For Today
If you have outdoor plans, stack them in the morning while it is drier and the sun is doing its thing. For anything after lunch, have rain gear or a backup plan ready.
On the roads, ease off the gas when you hit a downpour. For boaters and beachgoers, expect light east winds and seas under two feet through the week, which is friendly enough as long as you keep one eye on the sky for those pop-up storms.
