Tampa is starting Monday, March 2, 2026, on a gray and muggy note, with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s at Tampa International Airport and patchy fog hanging over low-lying spots. Skies are expected to clear by midmorning, and temps will climb into the low 80s, topping out near 83°F with an east-northeast breeze around 8 mph. Tonight should be mostly clear with a low near 63°F.
Afternoon Thunderstorm Threat
Some lingering mid-level cold air over the peninsula will add extra instability this afternoon, so a few thunderstorms could bubble up from mid to late afternoon, mainly from Sarasota south along the west-coast seabreeze, according to the National Weather Service. Forecasters are keeping rain chances on the low side at around 20%, but any storm that does form may bring a quick burst of heavy rain and lightning, with the higher risk inland. This updates our March 1 outlook for the area; March 1 forecast has more background on the week.
Impact On Your Commute
The prime window for showers and a few storms looks to be late afternoon into early evening, so the 5-7pm commute could see hit-or-miss slowdowns wherever cells pop up. Brief downpours may drop visibility in a hurry and lightning will be possible, so it is worth checking radar and allowing some extra time if you are out on the roads this evening. If you have outdoor plans after 3pm, you may want to start earlier or keep an indoor backup in your back pocket.
Week Ahead
A subtropical ridge is set to build over the region through the week, pushing highs into the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday and Thursday and keeping overnight lows in the 60s. Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers will stick around, higher inland and lower right along the immediate coast, but forecasters do not anticipate any watches or warnings for the Tampa Bay area at this time. For detailed hourly updates, check forecasts before heading out each day.
Boaters And Beachgoers
Easterly onshore winds may briefly pick up each evening, which could make for choppy conditions for smaller boats even though no marine headlines are expected. If you are heading to the beach, keep an eye on local flag conditions and be ready for quick, summer-style downpours in the afternoon and early evening.
