A new analysis warns that tougher federal SNAP work rules could lead to roughly 2,500 avoidable deaths in Texas by 2040, putting thousands of families in San Antonio and across Bexar County on shaky ground. The grim estimate comes as stricter 80-hours-a-month documentation requirements and new state cost-sharing rules kick in, changes advocates say will push already vulnerable residents off modest benefits. Local providers warn that losing SNAP will worsen chronic illness, increase emergency room use and pile even more pressure on already stretched nonprofit food networks.
Center for American Progress State Estimates
According to a state-by-state analysis by the Center for American Progress, expanded work requirements could translate into nearly 70,000 avoidable deaths nationwide by 2040 and about 2,500 in Texas. The analysis updates earlier academic estimates and allocates projected harms across states using data on adults who are at risk of losing benefits under the new rules.
What The CAP Table Shows
In the breakdown, Texas is listed at roughly 2,500 avoidable deaths tied to expanded work requirements and more than 55,000 lives at risk if the state were to withdraw from SNAP entirely. The full state chart is published in the CAP report and its embedded table, which is hosted by Datawrapper.
San Antonio Braces For Demand
In Bexar County, the San Antonio Food Bank estimates that roughly 279,000 residents rely on SNAP benefits, a number that makes the CAP projection land uncomfortably close to home for local leaders. As reported by Community Impact, Food Bank CEO Eric Cooper said, "We're just working to try and make sure no one else goes hungry" as the nonprofit ramps up operations to meet anticipated demand. The San Antonio Current has also highlighted the CAP state figures for local readers, underscoring how national policy tweaks can land hardest on food-insecure households close to home.
How The Law Triggers These Losses
Advocates trace the projected harms to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which expands SNAP work and paperwork requirements. Under the changes, many adults must document 80 hours of work, training or volunteering every month, and several prior exemptions are narrowed. The Congressional Budget Office projected that average monthly SNAP participation could fall by about 2.4 million people under the work-requirement changes, a figure CAP then used to model increased mortality risks.
On top of that, states face an October shift in administrative cost shares and new benefit cost shares in the coming years. Advocates warn that those budget pressures could push some states to consider cutting back on SNAP or, in the most extreme scenarios, walking away from the program entirely, the scenario CAP used for its higher-end death estimates.
What States And Local Leaders Are Asking For
State and local officials have urged Congress to delay the administrative and benefit cost shifts so agencies have time to upgrade systems and avoid cutting benefits while policies and procedures are already in flux. As reported by the National Governors Association, a bipartisan coalition of governors has asked for targeted fixes to the implementation timeline, arguing that smoother rollout is key to protecting food access while states stabilize their operations.
