U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is already tamping down expectations for a quick reset of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, warning on April 7 that efforts to “rebalance” the pact are unlikely to be finished by the July 1 joint review and could easily spill past that date. He said Washington has already kicked off bilateral technical talks with Mexico, while formal discussions with Canada are penciled in for May. Greer also signaled that USTR may have to put Congress on notice about U.S. intentions toward the pact on a firm timeline in the coming weeks.
“So I think that we aren't probably going to resolve all issues by July 1,” Greer said, according to Reuters. He delivered the remark at an event in Washington hosted by the Hudson Institute, where he laid out how the administration is approaching the high-stakes review.
Timeline and legal deadlines
The USMCA joint review is locked in for July 1, and under the agreement any country that wants to put changes on the table must file its recommendations at least one month before the meeting, which creates a de facto June 1 deadline. WilmerHale notes that U.S. implementing law also required USTR to brief Congress ahead of the review, adding one more procedural clock to watch.
Key friction points
Officials have pointed to a surge in auto imports from Mexico, along with concerns over steel and aluminum flows from both neighbors, as major friction points that need to be addressed before anyone can comfortably sign off on a renewal. Analysis from Brookings highlights how nearshoring trends and recent U.S. tariff moves have tangled rules of origin and supply chains across North America, turning what was supposed to be a smoother trading bloc into a more complicated puzzle.
Canada's warning and investor chill
North of the border, Canadian officials have been warning that the review process itself, combined with the possibility of follow up reviews every year, could chill investment if uncertainty drags on. Ottawa has flagged that risk publicly in the runup to talks, a concern reported by The Associated Press.
What's next
Greer said the administration may even have to contemplate pulling out of the three-way pact entirely or pivoting to separate bilateral deals if core disputes are not resolved, according to Reuters. The treaty text itself allows any party to withdraw with six months of written notice, as laid out in the USMCA provisions on the USTR site, and analysts say a shift toward bilateral talks would quickly reshape regional supply chains.
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