Severe weather is lining up to take a swipe at the Twin Cities on Monday, with local meteorologists issuing a Forecast First Alert ahead of storms that could bring large hail, damaging straight-line winds and conditions that favor tornadoes late in the day.
What forecasters are warning
The 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS Weather Team sounded the Forecast First Alert as its meteorologists warned that severe thunderstorms may produce big hail, powerful winds and "conditions that favor the formation of tornadoes," according to KSTP. The alert is designed to give people a heads-up before the most dangerous window arrives. Forecasters say they will keep updating the outlook through Sunday night and will let viewers know quickly if watches or warnings are issued.
How big is the risk
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley in an elevated Day 2 risk area, noting that the most pronounced severe threat runs from southeast Minnesota into south and south-central Wisconsin, where supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Forecasters highlight a late-afternoon into evening period as the most likely time for storms to become surface-based and intense. The discussion points to steep lapse rates aloft and strengthening low-level winds as ingredients that could support robust, potentially severe storms.
Timing and where to watch
Local forecast models and station outlooks suggest storms will likely fire in western Minnesota around midday and then push into the Twin Cities metro after about 4 p.m., before moving into western Wisconsin later in the evening, according to KSTP. That timing could snarl the evening commute, and anyone planning outdoor events around dusk should have a solid shelter plan ready. Not every neighborhood will see severe weather, but any storm that becomes organized could pack a punch and cause localized damage.
How to prepare
The National Weather Service office in the Twin Cities is urging residents to review severe-weather plans, make sure they have multiple ways to receive alerts and know exactly where to take shelter at home and work, according to National Weather Service Twin Cities. NWS safety guidance notes that basements or small interior rooms on the lowest floor are the safest options during tornado warnings, and that mobile homes and vehicles offer little protection. Additional preparedness tips are available from the National Weather Service. Officials also recommend charging phones, securing loose outdoor items and avoiding travel during the peak threat window when possible.
Keep an eye on local forecasts and official National Weather Service products for real-time watches and warnings on Monday. This story will be updated as the forecast evolves.
