A new UC Berkeley and Los Angeles Times poll has turned the Los Angeles mayoral race into a three-way cliffhanger, with Mayor Karen Bass at 26 percent, City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 25 percent and former reality TV personality Spencer Pratt at 22 percent among likely voters. With undecided voters down to about 10 percent, a steep drop from March, the June 2 primary is shaping up as a pure turnout fight over which two contenders make it to November.
Poll Puts Bass, Raman and Pratt In Dead Heat
According to the Los Angeles Times, the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey polled 1,913 registered Los Angeles voters, including 1,351 classified as likely voters, between May 19 and 24. The poll carries a margin of error of roughly three percentage points, which is why all three candidates are effectively tied. "You have got three very different candidates, each with very different constituencies, all within the margin of error. It is going to boil down to turnout," Berkeley IGS director Mark DiCamillo told the paper. The institute posts detailed poll releases and tabulations for researchers at Berkeley IGS.
Why Timing Matters
The poll dropped just ahead of Los Angeles' Primary Nominating Election on Tuesday, June 2, a date listed on the Office of the City Clerk election calendar. On Thursday, Gov. Gavin Newsom formally endorsed Bass, a late-arriving stamp of approval her campaign is pitching as a turnout jolt, as reported by NBC Los Angeles. Early ballots are already coming in across the city, and the pattern of who votes where in the final days could quickly shuffle the order of the top two.
Shifting Support And High Unfavorable Ratings
Compared with the March Berkeley IGS survey, Raman and Pratt have each gained eight percentage points while Bass has held roughly steady, according to the Los Angeles Times. The same polling shows steep unfavorable ratings for both Bass and Pratt, each at around 57 percent, while Raman's favorable rating is closer to 40 percent. Pratt has converted attention from viral AI videos and the loss of his Palisades home in last year's fire into momentum, but analysts cited by AP say his path to a November runoff still looks tougher than that of his rivals.
Pratt's Surge And The Road Ahead
Pratt's campaign has leaned heavily on short-form social media clips and AI-generated ads that have circulated well beyond Los Angeles, a strategy profiled by The Washington Post. While that online spectacle has boosted his name recognition, poll cross tabs and hypothetical head-to-head matchups indicate that Bass and Raman retain advantages if they square off one-on-one in November. That makes turnout math, and which neighborhoods are driving early returns, the decisive variable in the final stretch.
What To Watch Before Election Day
In the closing days, the key storyline is where the votes are coming from. The Berkeley IGS numbers show undecided voters collapsing from March levels, which means even modest turnout shifts in particular communities could tilt the three-way contest in any direction. Under California's top-two system, the two highest vote-getters in June advance to the November general election unless a single candidate wins a majority in the primary, according to the California Secretary of State. With less than a week to go, campaigns say their focus is on mobilizing supporters, not trying to dramatically change minds at the last minute.
