A nine-figure hole has appeared in Bexar County’s long-term budget outlook, and the people charged with watching the books say they did not see it coming. County Manager David Smith warned this week that Bexar County is on track for roughly a $145 million shortfall by fiscal 2029, and he told reporters the commissioners “had no idea” the gap was headed their way. Speaking at the State of the County event, Smith pointed to sliding property-tax revenue, a jump in exemptions and the wind-down of federal pandemic relief as key pressure points. He said he is against a property-tax hike, while outgoing County Judge Peter Sakai cautioned against cutting essential services. How to bridge the gap will land on the desk of the next county judge, whom voters will choose in November.
Smith's 'No Idea' Warning
Smith’s blunt post-speech assessment, “We really had no idea,” was captured in local coverage of the State of the County address. As reported by San Antonio Current, he tied the looming shortfall to a projected 2% decline in property-tax revenue that county staff say translates into about a $145 million gap by fiscal year 2029.
County Forecast Lays Out The Shortfall
That eye-popping figure is not just a back-of-the-napkin guess. County staff baked it into an April long-range financial forecast presented to Commissioners Court, which shows updated projections that could leave roughly $145 million less in available funds by FY 2028–29. The presentation, posted by Bexar County, spells out assumptions that include lower values for existing properties, an assumed $6 billion loss tied to appraisal protests and a menu of possible mitigation steps staff are already kicking around.
What’s Dragging Down Revenue
Officials are pointing at a softer housing market and policy choices that have trimmed what the county can tax. The Bexar Central Appraisal District’s preliminary roll shows existing property values slipping, and county staff told commissioners that roughly 50,000 more properties now carry exemptions. On top of that, a new $125,000 exemption for some business personal property has further shrunk the taxable base, the Express-News reported.
Officials Vow To Steer Clear Of Tax Hikes
Smith has been clear about one thing, he does not plan to plug the gap by raising tax rates. He said it “isn't my intention to propose a budget that has a property tax increase,” noting that a hike “hasn't happened in 30 years” and that he does not want to be the one who breaks that streak. Outgoing Judge Sakai, for his part, told reporters he is not willing to sacrifice public safety or basic needs in the name of balancing the books, according to San Antonio Current.
November's County Judge Race Looms Large
Whoever wins the county judge’s gavel this fall will inherit the authority to shape the budget and decide how aggressive any cuts or other fixes should be. Former San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg and Republican Patrick Von Dohlen are headed to the November general election, and their contrasting priorities are expected to influence how commissioners navigate the options, the Express-News reported.
Budget Timeline And Next Steps
For now, county staff are watching the appraisal roll like hawks. They told the court they will track certified appraisal values as they arrive in May, June and July, then use those numbers to draft a budget over the summer. Commissioners Court is expected to adopt next year’s budget in September. The county’s long-range planning materials stress that, without mitigation, reserves could be drained and that officials need to move early if they want to keep that from happening, according to Bexar County.
How Leaders Might Close The Gap
Staff have already floated a starter list of potential belt-tightening moves, including skipping cost-of-living adjustments, freezing vacant civilian jobs, pausing new capital projects and tweaking health insurance in order to stretch current revenues. Budget Director Tanya Gaitan and other county staff said those are among the mitigation steps on the table, according to KSAT. For now, leaders say they plan to avoid a tax increase if they can, and instead look for trims to non-core spending while they watch the appraisal roll and any state-level policy shifts that might further shake up the tax base.
