St. Louis' industrial construction pipeline has slowed to its lowest level in a decade as major corporate users, not speculative developers, drive virtually all new building. Across the metro, large build-to-suit facilities for manufacturers and logistics tenants are taking over the development slate, while speculative projects have nearly disappeared. That shift is already reshaping vacancy patterns and shrinking the pool of move-in-ready Class A space.
As reported by CoStar, Boeing, Amazon and Whirlpool anchor the city's largest ongoing industrial projects, a lineup that has helped push overall starts to a decade low. The CoStar analysis notes that developers are prioritizing pre-leased, user-specific buildings over speculative warehouses that hope tenants show up later.
Market Snapshot: Tight Pipeline, Soft Spots In Vacancy
According to Cushman & Wakefield, the metro closed Q1 2026 with a 4.6% overall vacancy rate and roughly -946,757 square feet of net absorption. At quarter end, there were about 2.8 million square feet under construction, almost all of it build-to-suit. Those figures highlight a market steered by large occupiers, even as recent deliveries and move-outs nudged occupancy lower in certain submarkets.
From 2021 Peak To Leaner Times, Build-To-Suit Takes Over
Newmark's Q1 brief finds the pipeline has fallen from an approximate 8.5 million square foot peak in late 2021 to about 3.9 million square feet today, with build-to-suit projects making up nearly 90% of current starts, according to Newmark. With such a heavy build-to-suit share, most new product is tailored to a single tenant instead of being marketed to the broader leasing pool.
What It Means For Landlords, Tenants And Developers
Local brokers say the shift works best for tenants that can wait for a custom building, but it complicates life for occupiers that need space yesterday. Colliers' Q1 market report describes selective leasing and disciplined development, with asking rents stabilizing in many submarkets even as availability climbs in others, according to Colliers. That mix is pressuring landlords and influencing what kinds of projects local developers are willing to bring out of the ground.
Big Users Are Redrawing The Industrial Map
Cushman & Wakefield notes that North County alone had roughly a 1.1 million square foot build-to-suit under construction for Boeing, and that the metro's under construction total largely reflects several large, occupier-led projects. CoStar also reports Whirlpool is planning a new 544,000 square foot facility in western St. Louis County and lists Amazon among the market's biggest ongoing occupiers. Those user-backed projects bring jobs and long-term payroll anchors, even as they keep many speculative developers waiting on the sidelines.
Developers and occupiers will be watching leasing velocity and capital markets closely. If demand accelerates in the back half of 2026, paused speculative projects could be revived, but for now build-to-suit remains the primary path to large-volume growth. Newmark's outlook suggests leasing momentum could pick up later in 2026, and that kind of recovery would be the clearest signal that speculative construction is finally ready to return to St. Louis' industrial market.
