Honolulu wakes up cloudy and muggy on Saturday, May 16, with temperatures hovering near 75°F before sunrise and an east breeze around 13 mph. Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms could drop in through the day as highs climb toward 85°F. Most of the beefier thunderstorms should favor the Big Island, but Oʻahu is still in line for a couple of quick downpours.
Afternoon Showers And Gusty Trades
Through the afternoon, scattered showers remain on the table along with gusty east winds near 13 to 17 mph, with occasional gusts up to 24 mph on exposed ridges. That combination points to a warm, sticky and blustery setup, with highs around 85°F and a 25 to 30 percent chance of rain in Honolulu. Any passing cell could briefly dump heavy rain. The upper-level low that powered stronger storms earlier has weakened and the Flood Watch has been dropped, trimming the risk of widespread flooding, according to the National Weather Service Honolulu.
Coastal Flooding Around High Tides
A Coastal Flood Statement stays in place through Monday afternoon, flagging the potential for isolated minor coastal flooding and overwash near the late-afternoon high tides. Tide peaks are expected to reach about 2.5 to 3.0 ft MLLW this weekend. With water levels already running a bit higher than predicted, that is enough to trigger nuisance flooding on normally dry beaches and low-lying roadways. If you live close to the shoreline, move cars and valuables to higher ground and avoid driving through saltwater. For more background, see our sticky sunrise in Honolulu.
Plan Ahead
Where showers track through, expect slick pavement and watch for gusty crosswinds on bridges, ridgelines and popular bike routes. Secure loose outdoor gear and tie down small boats or canoes before the afternoon breeze ramps up. If you end up driving through saltwater, rinse your vehicle with fresh water as soon as you can, and follow any county or lifeguard closures to avoid damage or getting stuck.
Marine And Surf
Moderate to fresh trade winds will keep seas on the choppy side for east-facing shores, while a mix of small south swells holds south shore surf right around typical early-summer levels through Wednesday. Small craft should use extra caution in exposed waters and mariners are urged to check harbor advisories before heading out. Beachgoers should give wet rocks a wide berth, steer clear of boat ramps during any overwash and heed lifeguard instructions.
Looking Ahead
By Tuesday and Wednesday, trades are expected to strengthen as the pattern turns a bit drier and breezier, with highs in the mid 80s and lower shower chances for most leeward spots. Keep an eye on updates if your plans over the next few days involve low-lying coastlines or afternoon beach time.
