Roughly one in five Latino Texans who backed Donald Trump in 2024 now say they would not do it again if they got a second shot at the ballot, according to a new poll released Wednesday. The UnidosUS survey of 500 registered Latino voters in Texas, conducted from April 27 to May 14, included 300 respondents from five high-stakes congressional battlegrounds: the 15th, 23rd, 28th, 34th and 35th districts. In contests that can hinge on a few thousand votes, that kind of buyer’s remorse can quickly reshape the political math.
The headline findings were first broken by Click2Houston, which noted the poll drew on reporting from The Texas Tribune, while national outlets unpacked the methodology. Axios reports the UnidosUS poll was conducted by BSP Research and Shaw & Company and that about two-thirds of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, not exactly the kind of number a campaign likes to see in print. “The economic priorities dominate,” Clarissa Martínez De Castro, vice president of UnidosUS’s Latino Vote Initiative, told reporters discussing the poll.
Economy, Not Immigration, Top Concern
The survey finds that cost of living and inflation are the single biggest issue shaping Latino voters’ views of the president, not immigration, a pattern highlighted by CBS News. CBS reports that about 44% of respondents named the cost of living and inflation as their top concern, with immigration following behind at roughly a third. That focus on pocketbook issues helps explain why a notable slice of Trump’s 2024 Latino support says it would flip in a hypothetical redo.
Five Texas Districts Under Watch
Of the 500 Texas respondents, 300 lived in the five battleground districts and, according to the poll reported by Click2Houston, a slight majority in those areas said they planned to back the Democratic House candidate, while 27% favored a Republican. The same poll showed Democrat James Talarico leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by better than 2-to-1 among Latino respondents, and Democrat Gina Hinojosa ahead of Gov. Greg Abbott by a similar margin. Pollsters are quick to warn that turnout and the nuts and bolts of local campaigns will decide whether those sample margins turn into actual shifts at the ballot box.
Campaign operatives say the numbers serve as a reminder that the 2026 landscape can change quickly if either party ignores voters’ economic pain. Axios and other outlets point out that while the UnidosUS survey includes a sizeable national sample of 3,000 Latino registered voters, localized turnout and persuasion work will still be decisive in closely fought House races. Both parties are expected to ramp up targeted messaging and ground operations in Latino communities through the summer and fall.
In Texas, the UnidosUS results read as both an opportunity and a warning. Republicans’ 2024 gains with Latino voters could prove fragile if economic strain lingers, while Democrats still face the challenge of turning favorable polling into reliable turnout. The coming months will reveal whether these numbers mark the beginning of a broader realignment or just a temporary wobble before November.
_(cropped)(2).jpg){kind=link}