Minnesota saw its goods exports drop 8% in the first quarter of 2026, sliding to about $5.8 billion and wiping roughly $504 million off the state’s trade tally. That ugly headline number mostly traces back to a single slice of the market: mineral fuel and oil shipments to Canada, which fell by $628 million and turned what might have been modest growth into an overall decline.
According to state export data from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, total exports in the first quarter were valued at $5.8 billion, an 8% year over year decrease equal to about $504 million. The agency’s figures show that a $628 million plunge in mineral fuel and oil exports to Canada did most of the damage. Exports to Canada were down 41%, while shipments to China slipped 23%. DEED’s report also shows that if you strip out mineral fuel and oil shipments to Canada, Minnesota’s other exports actually grew by about 2% in the quarter.
Energy Shipments To Canada Drove The Change
DEED’s trade data and analysis show the fuel category has been swinging hard, with mineral fuel and oil exports to Canada trending lower since the second quarter of 2025. In an April summary, DEED reported that those fluctuations sliced roughly $1.7 billion out of Minnesota’s 2025 export totals and cautioned that federal tariff policies and diplomatic uncertainty are making it tougher for exporters to plan. The agency’s export archive backs up the headline numbers with detailed quarterly tables.
Winners And Losers
Not every sector was hurting. Several Minnesota export categories climbed during the quarter, according to WJON. Electrical equipment shipments jumped about 26%, and exports of oil seeds, grain and fertilizers rose roughly 45%. Those bright spots helped offset losses in some big manufacturing categories, leaving a mixed scoreboard for exporters across the state. The snapshot suggests agriculture and electrical equipment supply chains remain relative strong points even as energy sales to Canada wobble.
What It Means For Minnesota Businesses
For Minnesota companies that move refined fuels or depend on cross border logistics, the quarter’s whiplash is a reminder of how a sharp swing in one commodity can reshape the entire state export story. When policy shifts and international demand are this unpredictable, it becomes tougher for firms that rely on Canada as a steady buyer to manage forecasting, contracts and inventory. State trade officials are leaning on export assistance, market diversification efforts and trade missions as longer term tools to calm the outlook.
Where To Find The Numbers
DEED publishes full quarterly tables and downloadable files on its Export and Trade Statistics page, so users can drill down by commodity and destination to see the underlying data. The Q1 2026 report and historical tables are archived online for researchers, policymakers and businesses to comb through. The DEED export archive is the primary source for the figures cited in this story.
