UNLV faculty and students have helped author a sweeping new Global Burden of Disease analysis that delivers a blunt warning: substance use disorders in the United States are more widespread than in any other country and, if policymakers do not change course, could keep rising through 2050. For Southern Nevada, where fentanyl and other drug deaths have already strained county resources and response systems, that projection lands especially hard.
Large national study with state-by-state forecasts
The analysis, published on Tuesday in the journal Med, draws on Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates to measure prevalence and disability-adjusted life years for alcohol and drug use disorders across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. It then modeled trajectories out to 2050 to show how those burdens could change under current trends, as reported by Med.
UNLV researchers part of the collaborator team
UNLV says Manoj Sharma, a senior collaborator with appointments in social and behavioral health and internal medicine, and graduate assistant Sharmistha Roy were listed among the GBD 2023 US Substance Use Disorders Collaborators on the paper. The university notes the study flags rising prevalence and recommends evidence-based educational, behavioral, policy and legislative measures to blunt the trend, according to UNLV.
Opioids and drug use disorders drive the increase
The paper found that the United States had the highest age-standardized prevalence of substance use disorders in 2023 and that increases since 1990 were driven largely by drug use disorders, with opioid use disorder a major contributor across states. The authors project that, absent corrective measures, drug-related disorders will continue to push national prevalence higher through 2050, as detailed by Med.
Local consequences in Las Vegas and Clark County
Local health officials are already seeing the fallout. Clark County reported 311 deaths in 2024 where fentanyl was listed as contributory, and county leaders have formed an opioid task force to target hotspots and prevention efforts. Reporting from KTNV highlights how fentanyl and polysubstance overdoses have concentrated the problem in specific ZIP codes and age groups.
What researchers recommend
Study authors and UNLV officials point to a mix of education, expanded treatment access, harm-reduction measures and policy changes as the most evidence-backed levers to slow the projected rise. Local advocates say data like this helps justify stepped-up naloxone distribution, outreach and drug-checking services in high-risk neighborhoods, per UNLV and local reporting.
The GBD team's state-level forecasts are intended to help officials target resources where they will do the most good; public-health leaders and university researchers in Las Vegas will be watching whether those projections lead to concrete investments in prevention and treatment. The underlying GBD data and visualizations are available via the IHME GBD results tool.
