Hawaii’s job market is projected to add 28,060 positions by 2034, putting the islands ahead of the country’s overall growth rate. But there’s a catch hiding inside the rosy forecast: most of the openings expected each year will replace workers who leave or switch careers, rather than create entirely new jobs.
According to Hawaii News Now, total employment is expected to rise 4.1% between 2024 and 2034, compared with 3.1% nationwide. The Hawaii Department of Labor’s projections, based on 2024 employment data, estimate about 82,070 job openings annually during the forecast period.
Healthcare Is Hawaii’s Clear Growth Engine
The strongest projected growth is concentrated in industries that already touch everyday life: health care and social assistance is expected to grow 11.2%, followed by accommodation and food services at 6% and construction at 5.4%. That mix points to continued demand for caregivers, medical support workers, hospitality employees and the crews needed to build and maintain Hawaii’s homes and infrastructure.
The national comparison comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also identifies health care and social assistance as the country’s fastest-growing major sector, though its projected growth is lower at 8.4%. Hawaii’s stronger rate suggests the state’s health care needs, aging population and ongoing workforce demand could remain a major employment driver over the next decade.
Most Openings Will Come From Worker Turnover
Only about 4% of Hawaii’s projected annual openings are tied to net new job growth, which works out to roughly 3,300 expansion-related openings per year. The rest are expected to come from people changing occupations or leaving the workforce, meaning the labor market could stay busy even while total employment grows at a relatively modest pace.
For job seekers, the forecast is less a promise that every industry will be hiring than a map of where demand is most likely to persist. Healthcare leads the way, while hospitality and construction remain close behind—three sectors that may keep Hawaii’s hiring market moving even when the broader economy cools.
