Tropical Storm Fausto is flexing over the eastern Pacific and is forecast to become a hurricane later Monday night. The storm sat roughly 775 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California with sustained winds near 65 mph and was moving west-northwest at about 13 mph. Forecasters say Fausto could intensify rapidly over the next 48 hours before it runs into cooler water and drier air later in the week, conditions that should start to weaken the system.
Where Fausto Is Now
Fausto's center was near 13.5°N, 116.4°W, with tropical-storm-force winds extending as far as 140 miles from the center, according to the National Hurricane Center forecast advisory. The advisory placed the estimated minimum central pressure near 994 millibars and noted there are no coastal watches or warnings currently in effect.
The same guidance warned that swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, even with the center of the storm far offshore.
How Strong Could It Get
"Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days," the National Hurricane Center wrote in its forecast discussion, noting that Fausto is moving over very warm water that could fuel a quick ramp-up.
Several model scenarios show Fausto reaching the equivalent of a strong Category 2, roughly 95 knots (about 110 mph), by midweek. Forecasters cautioned that gradual weakening should begin once the storm encounters cooler, drier air, and the discussion flagged about a one-in-three chance of rapid intensification as the cyclone develops a compact core.
Coastal Effects To Watch
Even with the center of Fausto staying well out at sea, its long-period swells are expected to reach Mexican and U.S. beaches later this week, boosting rip-current and high-surf risks along the Baja coast and parts of Southern California. The Los Angeles Times reports that Fausto may send a fresh round of elevated swell to SoCal beaches after Elida's surf finally settles, a one-two punch that has lifeguards and beachgoers on alert.
The Associated Press noted that Fausto formed over the weekend well off Mexico's southwestern coast and is being closely monitored for rapid strengthening, although no immediate U.S. land impacts are expected.
What Locals Should Do
Forecast maps show Fausto could approach the central Pacific basin by Saturday as a weaker hurricane, a track that could send elevated swell toward Hawaii over the weekend, according to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Residents, boaters and beachgoers should keep an eye on updates from the National Hurricane Center and local forecast offices and follow any guidance from lifeguards and emergency managers as conditions evolve.
For general preparedness tips on coastal hazards and hurricanes, see Ready.gov.
