Two votes. That is the entire margin separating Port of Bellingham Commissioner Michael Shepard from Lummi Nation School science teacher Eamonn Collins in the Democratic scramble for Washington's 42nd Legislative District state Senate seat, with Shepard holding 12,856 votes to Collins' 12,854 out of nearly 49,000 ballots counted so far. The Whatcom County Elections Office still had 439 ballots left to tabulate as of the latest count, meaning the outcome could flip before results are even close to final.
The tight margin marks a dramatic swing from primary night, when Collins trailed Shepard by 2.5 percentage points, according to KUOW. As Washington's vote-by-mail system allowed postmarked ballots to keep trickling in, Whatcom County's overall turnout climbed from an initial 34% estimate to 42%, per My Bellingham Now. Results remain unofficial until the county canvassing board formally certifies them on August 18, according to the Whatcom County Auditor's Office.
A Recount Is Almost Certain
Whatever the final tally looks like, Washington election rules make a recount all but inevitable in this race. State law requires an automatic machine recount when the margin between second and third place falls under 0.5% of ballots cast and fewer than 2,000 votes, and it mandates a full manual hand recount if the gap is under 0.25% and fewer than 150 votes, per guidance cited by the Pierce County Auditor. With just two votes separating Shepard and Collins for the second spot behind Republican Erika Creydt, the manual recount threshold looks certain to apply once the county finishes counting.
Creydt, a clinical psychologist who specializes in youth mental health and sits on the Blaine School Board, led the field outright with 44.7% of the primary vote, per the seed reporting. Because Washington runs a top-two primary system where the leading two finishers advance regardless of party, only one of the two Democrats will make it to November alongside Creydt — even though Shepard and Collins together drew more than 52% of the combined primary vote.
Collins Says He's Willing to Wait
Collins told KUOW he remains confident he will overtake Shepard as the remaining ballots are processed, saying he is willing to wait it out. He argued that late-arriving votes tend to favor grassroots progressive campaigns like his own — a pattern consistent with the district's history of tight elections, including a 2018 state Senate contest in the same district decided by just 46 votes, according to Cascadia Daily News. Collins added that few people initially gave him a chance against the candidate favored by the Senate Democratic caucus.
Collins built his campaign around local labor and progressive support rather than establishment backing. He picked up endorsements from the Washington Federation of State Employees and the 42nd District Democratic Party, according to the seed reporting, while Post Alley reported that Collins separately secured backing from the Washington State Labor Council, the Teamsters, AFSCME, and the Progressive Voters Guide. Before entering local politics, Collins served as a federal education policy adviser in the U.S. Senate and now also serves as vice president of the Kulshan Community Land Trust and as an elected member of the Whatcom County Charter Review Commission, per Cascadia Daily News.
Shepard Leans on Party and Institutional Backing
Shepard, now in his third term as an elected Port of Bellingham Commissioner and an anthropology professor at Western Washington University, drew support from the party's institutional wing. Retiring Senator Sharon Shewmake, a Bellingham Democrat who did not seek reelection after winning her seat by just 900 votes in 2022, endorsed Shepard, as did Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen. The Jackson Legacy Fund, a group that works to elect moderate Democrats, spent $7,000 on independent mailers supporting Shepard, according to the seed reporting.
Shepard told KUOW that running has been a privilege and that he is thrilled by the support he has received, calling both Democratic candidates strong contenders. He pointed to his countywide elected experience as what sets him apart from Collins. Collins, for his part, has said local Democratic donors warned him early on that he would be destroyed in the race — a comment that underscores just how lopsided the financial fight looked at the outset.
Money Poured Into the Open Seat
Combined campaign spending in the primary topped $350,000, according to Washington Public Disclosure Commission filings cited by Cascadia Daily News. Creydt led all fundraising with more than $195,000 raised and has spent nearly all of it, while Shepard raised $104,000 and Collins raised $73,000, per the seed reporting. A fourth candidate, Ryan Bowman, ran with no party affiliation, supported Washington's new income tax on higher earners, and took 2.5% of the primary vote.
The financial imbalance reflects just how competitive the open seat has become. Under Washington law, officials like Shepard are permitted to hold local and state legislative positions simultaneously, since the state has no constitutional bar on dual office-holding — a detail relevant given his current Port of Bellingham commissioner role, according to Salish Current. The 42nd Legislative District spans left-leaning north Bellingham and rural Whatcom County alongside more conservative communities including Ferndale, Blaine, and Lynden, making it one of the state's most reliable swing districts heading into a fall general election.
Other Tight Races Statewide
Whatcom County's nail-biter is not the only close statewide legislative contest still being sorted out. In the 29th District covering Tacoma, Patrick Stickney leads Natasha Laitila by 172 votes, per the seed reporting. In the 3rd District race in Spokane, Luc Jasmin III has surpassed Pam Kohlmeier for the second spot, while Joe Bushnell leads the race for the seat opened by Rep. Sharlett Mena. All of these contests remain unofficial until county canvassing boards complete certification.
