A Republican primary to replace one of Florida's longest-serving congressmen remains too close to call, with unofficial results showing self-funded businessman Joe Strada leading longtime Lake County official Carey Baker by just 403 votes out of tens of thousands cast. That margin, sitting at roughly 0.4958%, falls squarely inside the state's automatic recount threshold, meaning the outcome of one of Central Florida's most closely watched primaries won't be finalized for days.
According to unofficial results reported by WFTV, Strada received 27,245 votes to Baker's 26,842, with 92% of the expected vote reported and the tally still excluding outstanding absentee ballots. Tim Wilkins held third place with 25% of the vote, followed by Dr. Nizam Razack at 6% and Ivette Palomo at 2%, per the same report. Under Florida Statute Section 102.141, any race decided by 0.5% or less automatically triggers a machine recount — candidates cannot request one outside that threshold, but the law mandates retabulation once a contest falls inside it, according to Florida Politics.
What Happens Next in the Recount Timeline
Florida election law requires machine recounts in regularly scheduled primaries to wrap up no later than 3 p.m. on the fifth day after the election, once county canvassing boards finish evaluating outstanding provisional and vote-by-mail ballots, per Ballotpedia. If that retabulation narrows the gap between Strada and Baker to 0.25% or less, it would trigger a further manual hand recount of overvotes and undervotes, the elections-focused site notes. Until the remaining ballots are processed, the WFTV report says it will continue updating the story as additional votes are counted and the race is officially called.
The seat opened up after Republican Rep. Daniel Webster, who has represented District 11 since 2017 and is Florida's longest-serving elected official, announced in April that he would retire at the end of his term. Webster, first elected to Congress in 2010 and a former Florida House Speaker, endorsed Baker as his preferred successor, according to the South Lake Tablet.
A Ten-to-One Spending Gap Defined the Race
Money separated the two front-runners as much as anything else on the ballot. Strada, founder of the Florida-based home services company Strada Services, backed his campaign with $5 million in self-funded loans and spent more than $3 million ahead of the primary — outspending Baker, who raised about $304,000, by more than ten to one, Florida Politics reported. Baker countered with institutional roots rather than dollars: he served three terms as Lake County Property Appraiser from 2012 to 2024, spent a decade in the Florida Legislature, and is a 31-year veteran of the Florida Army National Guard who deployed to Iraq while still holding state office, according to background compiled on Wikipedia.
Strada also built a wall of national and local endorsements, securing support from House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, along with regional sheriffs Dennis Lemma and Grady Judd, per Florida National News. Scalise and Jordan pointed to Strada's private-sector background as a key reason for backing him over a career local official, the outlet reported. Meanwhile, Dr. Nizam Razack, who took 6% of the primary vote, faced anti-Muslim protests and death threats during the campaign that led him to hire private security and avoid door-to-door canvassing, according to VoxPopuli. Razack had self-funded more than $700,000 into his own bid before primary day, the outlet noted.
Democrats Also Await a Final Call
The Democratic primary in District 11 remained officially uncalled as of the WFTV report, with 98% reporting. James Pericola held 46% of the Democratic vote, ahead of Royal Webster at 27% and Dan Williams at 26%, per WFTV's tally. Pericola, a lawyer and former Clinton administration official, had already locked down a key endorsement from 2024 Democratic nominee Barbie Harden Hall after she suspended her own 2026 primary bid for health reasons, according to Florida Politics. Hall had previously organized high-profile Democratic demonstrations in The Villages during her 2024 run against Webster, the outlet reported.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination will be heavily favored in November. District 11 stretches across Sumter County — home to The Villages retirement community — along with portions of Lake, Orange, and Polk counties, encompassing more than 893,000 residents as of 2024, according to Wikipedia. Independent handicappers including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7, per Ballotpedia News. Both the eventual Republican and Democratic nominees will face Libertarian candidate Ralph Groves in the Nov. 3 general election.
