Tampa's homicide count climbed from eight to 11 in the first half of 2026, placing the city among a small handful of major U.S. metros moving in the opposite direction of a broader national decline in violent crime. The increase, drawn from Major Cities Chiefs Association survey data, comes as Tampa also navigates a leadership shake-up atop its police department.
The Tampa figure was first reported by Axios, which analyzed Major Cities Chiefs Association data showing homicides across 66 large U.S. communities fell 17.2% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period the year before. Tampa's trend ran counter to that pattern, with the city's homicide count landing among the highest year-over-year increases for major cities nationally during the first half of 2026, according to preliminary data reviewed by Axios. The outlet noted that the Tampa Police Department did not respond to a request for comment on the survey.
Other Florida cities told a mixed story in the same dataset. Orlando's homicide count rose from six in the first half of 2025 to 10 in the first half of 2026, a 66.7% increase, while Miami's homicide count fell 50% over the same comparison period, per the Axios analysis. Nationally, homicides declined 17.2% from the first half of 2025, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association survey covering 66 responding agencies — consistent with a first-quarter 2026 decline of 17.7% across 67 agencies reported by the same association.
A Historic Low Baseline Shapes the Numbers
Local context matters here: Tampa's 2026 midyear increase is being measured against an unusually low starting point. In full-year 2025, Tampa recorded just 19 homicides — a 52.8% decrease from 2024 and the city's lowest annual homicide total in more than 50 years, according to WTSP. That means a jump from eight to 11 homicides at midyear, while a real increase, still sits well below the city's historical norms.
Tampa also reported declines across several other crime categories even as homicides rose, per the Axios data: reported aggravated assaults fell 7%, robberies dropped 21%, and rapes declined 24%. Those figures echo a broader pattern the city saw in 2025, when Tampa reported a 35% reduction in non-fatal shootings alongside its historic homicide drop, according to the Tampa Bay Times. That 2025 performance came under the department's “Focus on Four” strategy — intelligence-led policing paired with proactive intervention and community partnerships — which helped Tampa rank fourth lowest in total violent crime among 67 major U.S. cities that year.
Leadership Change Lands Amid the Data Release
The midyear numbers surfaced just as Tampa's police department underwent a change at the top. Chief Lee Bercaw, who joined the department in 1997, retired effective August 5, with Mayor Jane Castor appointing Assistant Chief Brett Owen as Acting Chief of Police, according to the City of Tampa. Castor, who served as Tampa's police chief before becoming mayor, has previously pointed to joint local-federal law enforcement partnerships and community-based intervention as key drivers behind falling city crime, remarks she made at the U.S. Conference of Mayors' 93rd Annual Meeting, held in Tampa in June 2025, per the U.S. Conference of Mayors.
Tampa is not alone in seeing a reversal after a strong 2025. Neighboring St. Petersburg recorded just 10 homicides in 2025, its lowest annual total since 1967, a result Hoodline previously reported was tied to early-intervention programs like Forward Together, which St. Petersburg Police Chief Anthony Holloway said keeps roughly 60% of enrolled youth from reoffending. Columbus, Ohio also saw a midyear reversal in 2026, recording at least 50 homicides by late July compared with 46 over the same period in 2025, despite having posted a 31% homicide drop the year before, according to Hoodline's coverage of a recent Columbus shooting.
National Numbers Still Point Downward Overall
Elsewhere in the same MCCA survey, several cities posted dramatic swings in both directions. San Diego's homicides increased 81.3% from January 1 to June 30, 2026, and Honolulu's rose 85.7% over the same window, while Denver saw a 30% increase. On the other side of the ledger, Newark, New Jersey, recorded a 64.7% decline in homicides over the same period, Raleigh, North Carolina, saw a 63.6% drop, and Memphis posted a 43.7% decline.
The broader national trend remains one of decline. The Council on Criminal Justice's July 2026 mid-year update, which analyzed 36 major U.S. cities, found that nine of 13 tracked crime categories fell in the first half of 2026, led by a 47% drop in carjackings and an 18% decline in homicides among 30 reporting cities. The organization noted that the homicide decline, which began in the second half of 2022, has spanned cities with different political leadership, policing strategies, economic conditions and levels of federal involvement.
Federal health data lends additional context to where Florida sits within that national picture. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 2026 figures show Florida maintained an age-adjusted homicide mortality rate of 5.5 deaths per 100,000 residents, notably lower than neighboring Georgia's rate of 9.2 per 100,000, according to the CDC. Florida's statewide homicide rate has held largely steady between 5 and 7 per 100,000 since 2000, per the same data.
Whether Tampa's midyear uptick proves to be a lasting shift or a statistical blip tied to its unusually low 2025 baseline remains to be seen, especially as the department settles in under new acting leadership. For now, the city's numbers stand as a reminder that even amid a broad national decline in violent crime, individual cities can move against the grain from one year to the next.
