President Donald Trump's job approval rating has sunk to 40%, with 56% of voters disapproving, according to a new Emerson College poll released Thursday that also shows Democratic congressional candidates leading their Republican opponents heading into the November 2026 midterm elections. The survey found Trump's standing dragged down by independent voters, 66% of whom disapprove of his performance, and a 30-point gender gap, with 62% of women disapproving compared to just 32% who approve.
The Emerson poll, reported by The National News Desk, carries a three-point margin of error and points to a fractured Trump voter coalition as Republicans defend their slim House majority. The same survey measured support for Democratic and Republican congressional candidates for November, along with a share of respondents still undecided, and found Democrats appeared poised to retake control of at least one chamber of Congress. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Suzan DelBene, a Washington state congresswoman, said American families are struggling under House Republicans' broken promises and higher costs, framing the party's argument that Republican governance has been harmful to the economy and to voters that GOP candidates promised to protect.
DCCC Widens Its Target List Again
The polling drop comes as House Democrats keep expanding their battlefield. According to CBS News, the DCCC added 12 Republican-held districts to its target map on August 5, including seats held by Rep. Lauren Boebert and NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson, bringing its total Districts in Play list to 58 seats. The committee then tacked on five more candidates to its Red to Blue program on August 20, according to the seed reporting relayed by The National News Desk, as the DCCC works to help elect Democratic House candidates in an aggressively expanded field of conservative-leaning seats.
The same Emerson survey asked respondents about their ideological identity, finding that 23% of likely voters consider themselves supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America, including 46% of Democrats. Insider NJ, which first reported the poll's demographic breakdowns, compared that figure to an August 2010 CBS News poll that found 29% support for the Tea Party movement, offering a historical yardstick for the current wave of grassroots energy on the left.
Senate Math Remains a Steeper Climb
Even with the House trending Democratic, the Senate presents tougher terrain. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority heading into the midterms, meaning Democrats would need a net gain of four seats while simultaneously defending 13 of their own, according to Ballotpedia. The Democratic Party may cut into the Republican Party's six-seat Senate majority, but doing so requires winning in some genuinely difficult territory.
Alaska offers one such opening. In the state's nonpartisan primary this week, Democratic former Congresswoman Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan 48% to 42.8%, with both advancing to November in a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, per The Guardian. Peltola made history in 2022 as the first Alaska Native elected to the U.S. House, and Sullivan is running what the seed reporting describes as a strong campaign to hold the seat.
Texas has emerged as another unexpected battleground after Attorney General Ken Paxton ousted four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a May primary runoff, taking 63.8% of the vote. The Texas Tribune's coverage of the race shows Democratic nominee James Talarico has led or tied Paxton in multiple summer polls, giving Texas Democratic underdogs a chance to break through in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades. Cornyn was one of two incumbent GOP senators to lose renomination this cycle.
North Carolina, Maine and Ohio Round Out the Battlefield
In North Carolina, Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced in June 2025 that he would not seek re-election following disputes with Trump over budget legislation, opening a seat now contested by former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley, according to reporting cited from The Washington Post. Democrats haven't won a U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2008, but Cooper's candidacy has energized the party's base in the state.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins is running a strong campaign of her own as the only Republican senator defending a state Kamala Harris won in 2024. The 19th News reports her race against Democratic nominee Troy Jackson is centered heavily on reproductive rights and her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for its general elections.
In Ohio, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who has the advantage of running for reelection in a reliably Republican state, has picked up endorsements from four labor unions that previously backed his Democratic opponent, former Sen. Sherrod Brown, according to the Washington Examiner. Husted, appointed by Governor Mike DeWine in January 2025 to fill Vice President JD Vance's unexpired term, has also secured Trump's endorsement as he seeks to hold the seat in November's special election.
Historical Pattern Favors the Opposition Party
Newsweek notes that the president's party has almost consistently lost seats in midterm elections, a trend boosting Democratic prospects to reclaim the House even as the Senate remains a toss-up in forecasters' eyes. That historical headwind, combined with Trump's underwater approval numbers, helps explain why Democrats are pressing their advantage into districts and states that would have seemed out of reach in a less turbulent political environment.
Whether that advantage holds through November remains an open question. It is not yet clear whether Paxton's primary win over Cornyn will depress Republican turnout in Texas's general election, or whether Trump's personal endorsement of candidates like Husted will be enough to carry MAGA nominees over the finish line in some of the cycle's most contested races.
