Cloverdale has become the first city in Sonoma County to declare a local emergency over an approaching El Niño winter, with city leaders warning that a swollen Russian River could knock out a water well, flood a PG&E substation and swamp the municipal airport. The Cloverdale City Council passed a resolution declaring the local emergency as forecasters warn of a potentially heavy or historically stormy winter ahead.
The move, first reported by The Press Democrat, comes as Cloverdale works to safeguard critical power and water infrastructure from flood damage ahead of the storm season. City attorney Alex Mog said El Niño and heavy rainfall have the potential to create extreme peril to people, property or public health within Cloverdale, according to the same report.
Cloverdale sits adjacent to the Russian River, and when the river swells, small creeks and streams in the area cannot properly drain, creating a high risk of localized flooding on city streets. The river also carries sediment and vegetation buildup that could worsen flooding, per the Press Democrat's reporting. The city has homes and businesses along the river, as well as a levee system meant to protect them.
A Well the City Could Lose
Vice Mayor Todd Lands, first elected to that post in 2020, said the head of the city's water department warned that a well could be lost during the storm, the outlet reports. Cloverdale has wastewater wells located in the 100-year flood zone, and roads leading to its water department could also be affected. Lands said he hopes Cloverdale will proactively address storm concerns ahead of El Niño rather than wait for damage to occur.
A Pacific Gas and Electric Co. substation located near the Russian River is vulnerable to flooding, as is the Cloverdale Municipal Airport, which sits near the river as well. Public works director Derrick Montanye said an emergency declaration would have helped reinforce protective work the city undertook in 2023, per the Press Democrat's account.
Lessons From the 2023 Storms
Cloverdale received 23.98 inches of rain over a three-week period in 2023, according to the Press Democrat, with atmospheric rivers driving up river levels across the region. Those storms prompted city officials to reinforce river banks that year to protect the city's water well field. Lands said the 2023 storms were a warning and a lesson for improving emergency preparedness, and city leaders agreed the new resolution marks an important first step in preparing for a potentially similar winter.
Cloverdale has historically taken a reactive approach to storm mitigation, the outlet notes, but the resolution is intended to change that. The local emergency declaration clears a path for coordination with local, state and federal regulatory agencies, and the city plans to work with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers as it pursues permits and assistance, including potential funding. The resolution does not authorize gravel or vegetation removal on its own, according to the Press Democrat's reporting.
Lands said Sonoma County Supervisor James Gore planned to bring a similar emergency resolution for consideration at the county level, per Lands' account relayed by the Press Democrat.
A Historically Strong El Niño Taking Shape
The preparations come as federal forecasters describe a striking outlook for the season. Per kqed.org, there is a 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and a nearly 70% chance its strength could exceed any similar event seen since 1950. The Climate Prediction Center suggests much of California will see above-normal temperatures this fall, with potential for above-normal precipitation across Northern California come December, the outlet reports.
The National Weather Service's Bay Area office has said most flooding this winter would likely come from atmospheric rivers fueling storms, as well as from rising seas that will run even higher during extra-high king tides right around Thanksgiving and Christmas, according to the same kqed.org report. Similar events in past El Niño years have brought torrential downpours, coastal flooding, mudslides, power outages and giant waves, the outlet notes. Preparedness experts recommend clearing gutters, patching roofs and trimming trees, along with clearing debris from low-lying creeks and roads, ahead of the rainy season.
Signs Already Showing Up Along the Coast
Farther south, the effects are already visible. A warming ocean, high surf, coastal erosion and out-of-season rainfall are all part of the El Niño actively strengthening in the Pacific, according to spectrumlocalnews.com. Climate scientist Daniel Swain said El Niño isn't expected to reach its maximum strength until roughly November, the outlet reports, though a separate account in the same report said Swain also called it likely to become the strongest on record.
Dana Point issued its own emergency declaration after coastal flooding tied to Hurricane Marie, with eight homes red-tagged as uninhabitable and seven yellow-tagged with restricted access, per Spectrum's reporting. Communities including Malibu, Long Beach, Dana Point, Laguna Beach and San Clemente have seen flooding, erosion and damage to some homes since June, according to cbsnews.com. That outlet also reports NOAA is tracking a Kelvin wave, an underwater phenomenon that raises sea levels and can worsen coastal erosion, expected to reach Southern California by the end of October after moving north from waters off Mexico.
For Cloverdale, those statewide signals underscore the urgency behind its own resolution. With a well, a PG&E substation, an airport and wastewater infrastructure all sitting in flood-prone terrain along the Russian River, city leaders are hoping this declaration gets ahead of a storm season forecasters say could rival anything the region has seen in decades.
