New York Governor Kathy Hochul says she plans to campaign alongside Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at multiple events before Election Day, teaming up with the Queens congresswoman as she seeks a second full term against Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman. The announcement lands the same day two fresh polls show Hochul holding a commanding advantage over the Nassau County executive, though the size of that lead depends heavily on which pollster you ask.
“I will be with her at different events,” Hochul said, according to Gothamist, which first reported the plan. Hochul said Ocasio-Cortez “brings energy to the process and engages young people,” and the governor has encouraged Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats to campaign statewide ahead of November. Ocasio-Cortez is separately starting her own statewide campaign tour, which she plans to begin in Buffalo, though Hochul did not say whether she would join her there.
The pairing isn't new. Ocasio-Cortez campaigned for Hochul during the 2022 race, and the two spoke with voters together at the Woodside station in Queens on Election Day that year. Blakeman, for his part, doesn't seem worried about the reunion tour. Speaking at the New York State Capitol, he said, per the same reporting, that “the more she campaigns for Kathy Hochul, the greater chance of my election.”
Two Polls, Two Very Different Margins
Hochul's lead looks either massive or merely comfortable depending on the survey. A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday, September 23, found Hochul leading Blakeman 58%-39% among likely voters, a 19-point margin, according to Quinnipiac University. That poll surveyed 1,026 New York likely voters from Sept. 17 to 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
A Siena University poll released the same day told a narrower story, putting Hochul ahead 50%-41%. That's “little changed from 49-39% in August,” according to Siena College Research Institute. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg framed the shrinking margin as a sign the race is competitive, noting Blakeman trails by nine points with six weeks left before Election Day. The two surveys show different margins: a 19-point Quinnipiac lead and a nine-point Siena lead.
Cost of Living Dominates Voter Concerns
Quinnipiac's poll found cost of living was the top issue for New York likely voters at 28%, followed by the economy at 21% and health care at 11%. Among voters who named cost of living their top concern, Hochul led Blakeman 66%-30%, per Quinnipiac's release. Hochul's overall job approval stood at 48% approve to 44% disapprove in that same survey.
Siena's numbers on Hochul's standing also ticked upward. Her favorability rose to 48%-46%, up from 46%-49% in August, and her job approval climbed to 48%-47% from 48%-49% the prior month, according to a report from CBS News New York. That outlet also noted Quinnipiac's 58%-39% figure is substantially wider than Siena's, underscoring just how much the two pollsters diverge on the size of Hochul's advantage.
Regional Splits and Expectations of a Win
Geography tells its own story in the Siena poll. Hochul dominates New York City 61%-27%, while the race is essentially tied in the downstate suburbs, where she leads 48%-46%, and upstate, where Blakeman leads 47%-44%, according to the Siena release. Two-thirds of likely voters, 66%, think Hochul will win the race outright, including 37% of Republicans, per the same poll.
Hochul's Siena lead has drifted only slightly since summer. In June, among registered voters, she led Blakeman 52%-32%, a wider margin than her later lead among the narrower pool of likely voters, Siena's August release noted. The institute also drew a comparison to 2022, when Hochul led then-opponent Lee Zeldin by 17 points, 54%-37%, at a similar point in the race before ultimately winning by six points — a reminder that summer and early-fall polling leads don't always hold their shape. Prediction markets, meanwhile, give the Democratic nominee roughly an 87% chance of retaining the governorship, according to City & State New York.
A Broader Democratic Push
The Ocasio-Cortez pairing fits into a larger party effort. The New York State Democratic Party earlier this year launched a statewide tour dubbed “The Cost of Bruce Blakeman,” designed to highlight the Republican candidate's close relationship with President Donald Trump, according to Spectrum News NY1. Hochul herself, when asked about the polling landscape, offered a wry aside: “Polling these days leads one to wonder,” she said, according to Gothamist's report.
Democrats are counting on Hochul to run up the score at the top of the ticket. Beyond the governor's race, some of the state's most closely watched contests this cycle include the NY-17, NY-19, NY-04 and NY-01 districts, according to City & State New York's tracking of the races.
New Podcast Aims to Track the Race
For voters trying to follow the twists of the campaign, WNYC is launching a new weekly show. “Who's Running This Place?”, hosted by Brigid Bergin, debuts Thursday at 1 p.m. and will air every Thursday from 1 to 2 p.m. through mid-November, according to Gothamist's report on the station's plans.
