Wind and surf hazards increase
Cloudy conditions and northeast winds are expected, with afternoon gusts possible. Most of the city should stay dry, though Staten Island and parts of the region have a higher chance of light rain.
A high risk of rip currents is expected at New York’s ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger winds and higher tides may contribute to beach erosion and minor to locally moderate coastal flooding beginning Wednesday afternoon. The forecast describes potential impacts; it does not establish that flooding or erosion is occurring now.
Why the shoreline is vulnerable
The city’s Hazard Mitigation Plan says the southern shoreline is particularly exposed because it receives wave energy from the Atlantic as well as surrounding bay waters.
New York’s broader exposure is substantial: the City of New York’s CDBG-DR Action Plan identifies more than 520 miles of waterfront and about 400,000 residents in areas at the highest risk for flooding. Those figures describe the city’s general vulnerability, not the size or location of any flooding expected this week.
Sandy offers a much more severe comparison
A historical comparison also requires caution. The city’s CDBG-DR Action Plan records that Hurricane Sandy struck New York City on Oct. 29, 2012, causing major storm-surge impacts in waterfront communities including the Rockaways, Midland Beach, Coney Island and Hamilton Beach; 44 New Yorkers died.
Cool and unsettled pattern continues
Tuesday night should remain mostly cloudy, with temperatures near 55 degrees and northeast winds around 17 mph. Wednesday is expected to bring higher surf and stronger winds, with possible coastal flooding. Thursday should stay cool and breezy, with a high near 64.
