A national poll released Wednesday offers a snapshot of the political climate for President Trump and Republicans ahead of 2026. The survey is not an election forecast.
Trump's Approval and Favorability
The survey, conducted by NPR with PBS News and Marist, found Trump's favorability at 37% in September 2026, compared with 44% in January 2025. It also measured strong disapproval. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
The survey also addressed the generic congressional ballot, enthusiasm and independent voters.
Historical Context—and Limits
More than three-quarters of the 19 House majority changes since the start of the modern party system occurred in midterm elections, according to U.S. House History, Art & Archives. That pattern provides context, not a prediction for 2026. National generic-ballot polls have sometimes tracked the eventual House popular vote closely: Pew Research Center reported that four public polls conducted in the final days before the 2002 midterms averaged 51.5% for Republicans, within a point of their 52% share of the actual two-party results. That historical comparison does not forecast seats or determine how this registered-voter poll will translate into votes.
The Poll Points to Competition in Several Senate States
The survey also found Democrats competitive in Senate contests in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas, all states Trump won comfortably in 2024. His margins were 11 points in Ohio, 13 in Alaska, 13 in Iowa and 14 in Texas.
The poll addressed voters' views on the economy and immigration.
How Voters Describe Their Midterm Choices
The poll explored whether Trump would factor into voters' midterm choices.
About one-third of voters said Trump was not much of a factor in their decision; Republicans made up 41% of that group. The survey also found that Trump's 2024 voters were less likely than Kamala Harris voters to follow the midterm election closely, care who wins control of Congress or have been contacted by someone encouraging them to vote.
Campaigns Respond to Economic and Political Pressures
Iowa Republican Senate nominee Ashley Hinson and former Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers called for suspending gas taxes as prices rose.
In Florida, Republican Maria Elvira Salazar released an ad saying some of Trump's immigration enforcement efforts had gone too far, the report said. Trump has also urged voters to make the midterms a judgment on him, telling a Dallas audience, “I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot,” according to the report.
Voters overall preferred candidates offering new ideas and change to those emphasizing experience and a proven record.
