Tampa starts Tuesday with partly sunny skies, muggy air and temperatures in the mid-70s before the day warms to about 89 degrees. The rest of the day should remain dry outside coastal areas south of I-4, and Tampa has a 20% chance of precipitation. The National Weather Service’s Tampa forecast gives the updated high and rain chance.
The rain chance is about 30%, with light and variable winds becoming south-southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Any shower should be brief, with rainfall totals expected to stay below a tenth of an inch. The National Weather Service’s Tampa forecast lists the updated precipitation chance and wind.
Clouds Build Tuesday Night
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could linger Tuesday evening, mainly before 7 p.m., followed by mostly cloudy skies and a low near 72 degrees. Wednesday brings another warm afternoon near 88 degrees, with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning; the chance of precipitation is 40%. The National Weather Service’s Tampa forecast gives the updated rain chance.
Wetter Weather Takes Over Later This Week
Rain chances reach 70% Thursday, when afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely, then remain elevated Friday, with showers likely and a 70% chance of rain. The National Weather Service’s Tampa forecast lists the updated Friday rain chance.
Rain arrives against a lingering drought backdrop. In its Sept. 26 update, the National Weather Service said moderate to extreme drought persisted across much of west-central and southwest Florida, including parts of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. Pop-up summer storms have brought above-normal rain to some locations and below-normal totals to others, while longer-term rainfall deficits remain. The NWS drought update notes that rainfall since September 2025 has been well below normal across much of the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast into the weekend. The National Weather Service Tampa Bay office lists no watches, warnings or advisories for Florida or Gulf waters. The Tampa point forecast and the NWS regional hazard board provide the forecast and alert listings.
The region’s water supplies also reflect those longer-term deficits. The NWS said the C.W. Bill Young Regional Reservoir held 8.63 billion gallons on Sept. 24, about 55.7% of capacity, and groundwater levels were in the 21st percentile in early September. The drought statement also noted exceptionally low streamflows in many locations. Rainfall has been uneven across the region. The Tampa Bay office’s drought statement details those conditions.
