A new statewide poll finds Texas Hispanic likely voters favoring Democratic candidates over their Republican rivals by roughly a 2-to-1 margin in this year's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races, a striking reversal for a voting bloc that broke for Donald Trump just two years ago. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 63% to 30% among Hispanic voters in the Senate contest, while Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa led Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 60% to 33% in the race for governor.
The numbers come from a survey conducted for The Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision, carried out by Republican firm OnMessage Inc. and Democratic firm Hart Research from August 26 through September 3. The poll surveyed 1,000 Hispanic likely voters statewide, with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, according to the survey's own methodology notes. As the San Antonio Current first reported, the findings suggest Abbott and Paxton are both facing tighter-than-usual races among a demographic that has trended rightward in recent cycles.
A Sharp Turn From 2024's Trump Gains
Trump carried Texas Hispanics by 10 points in 2024, and Abbott took 40% of the Hispanic vote in his 2022 reelection. Those gains now look shakier: the same Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision survey put Trump's job approval among Texas Hispanic voters at just 33%. Eighteen percent of Texas Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 said they now disapprove of his job performance, and pollsters found that Hispanic Trump voters were unwilling to back a Republican House candidate in a generic matchup.
Nearly two-thirds of Hispanic voters statewide said they were less likely to support a candidate who backs Trump's deportation policy, per the same survey. Yet the poll also found that the economy, not immigration, remains the top concern for these voters by a two-to-one margin over immigration and ICE combined — a detail that complicates any simple narrative about what's driving the shift.
Rio Grande Valley Numbers Tell a Similar Story
The survey also included an oversample of 414 Hispanic voters across three Rio Grande Valley and South Texas congressional districts — TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34 — where three competitive House races are underway. In that oversample, Democrats led Republicans by 14 percentage points on the generic ballot, 53% to 39%, according to The Cook Political Report's Substack analysis. Talarico also led Paxton among Hispanic independents by 73% in the same polling.
Other recent surveys of those same border districts point in a similar direction. A Texas Southern University poll found Henry Cuellar leading Republican Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina 45% to 34% in the 28th Congressional District, according to Spectrum News. The same poll had Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz 50% to 45% in the 15th District, and Vicente Gonzalez leading Republican Eric Flores 45% to 42% in the 34th District.
A Pattern Showing Up Across Multiple Polls
The trend isn't confined to one survey. A separate Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll found that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Trump in 2024 now back Democratic candidates, according to The Hill. And a mid-August national Hart Research/Univision survey found Democrats leading Republicans among Texas Latinos on the generic congressional ballot by 56% to 36%, as reported by New York Magazine.
Turnout data from earlier this year backs up the polling trend. Texas Democrats more than doubled their 2024 turnout in four Rio Grande Valley counties during the March 3 primary elections, according to the Texas Tribune. That outlet noted the surge could signal that Texas's Latino voters are now an independent bloc rather than reliably tied to either party.
Not Every Poll Agrees on the Senate Race
Statewide head-to-head polls of the full electorate — not just Hispanic voters — paint a murkier picture of the Senate race overall. A June New York Times poll had shown Talarico winning Hispanic voters 61% to 29%, a margin similar to the new survey, per Politico. But an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey from August 9 found Paxton leading Talarico 47% to 46% among all Texas likely voters, while a Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll conducted September 8-10 found Talarico ahead 46% to 43%, according to The Hill.
As of this month, major election forecasters have rated the Texas Senate general election either Lean Republican or Toss-up, according to Ballotpedia. The general election is set for November 3. Whether the Hispanic-voter shift documented in the Cook Political Report/TelevisaUnivision survey is enough to flip that overall trajectory remains to be seen once all Texans — not just Hispanic likely voters — head to the polls.
