A new statewide poll shows Democrat James Talarico edging out Republican Ken Paxton by a single percentage point in the race for one of Texas's U.S. Senate seats, 47% to 46%, a margin so thin it sits well inside the survey's stated margin of error. The same poll found Republican Governor Greg Abbott holding a comfortable lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, while a lesser-known statewide race for Railroad Commissioner has turned into an unexpectedly close contest of its own.
The survey, conducted Sept. 15-19 among 1,800 likely Texas voters, came from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, according to FOX 7 Austin. It carries a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points, as reported by USA TODAY, meaning the one-point gap between Talarico and Paxton essentially describes a race in a dead heat. Talarico, an Austin-area state representative, and Paxton, the sitting Texas attorney general, are set to face off in the November 3 U.S. Senate election, per reporting from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
A Race That Keeps Landing Within a Point or Two
This isn't an isolated result. The center's August 4 poll was the third consecutive survey to show Talarico ahead of Paxton, according to Houston Public Media. Other pollsters have found similarly tight margins in recent days: a ReconMR Texas Poll taken Sept. 17 put Talarico ahead 49% to 43%, an Emerson College poll from the same day showed him leading 47% to 46%, and a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey from Sept. 15 had him up 46% to 43%, all according to USA TODAY's tally.
Talarico has led Paxton by an average of three points across polling in the prior two months, per Capitol Inside. An August 4 poll from TSU's center put Talarico ahead 47% to 45%, according to Houston Public Media.
Voter Loyalties Splinter Along Race, Gender and Party Lines
The numbers behind the topline result reveal a deeply divided electorate. Paxton leads among white likely voters, 56% to 37%, while Talarico leads among Latino voters, 57% to 38%, and holds a commanding advantage among Black voters, 87% to 10%, according to the USA TODAY analysis of the poll. The gender split cuts the other way from the racial one: Talarico leads among women, 53% to 42%, while Paxton leads among men, 51% to 42%.
Neither candidate enjoys strong personal popularity. Talarico is viewed favorably by 47% of likely voters and unfavorably by 50%, while Paxton's favorability sits at 43% favorable to 55% unfavorable, the same USA TODAY report notes. More than a quarter of voters who identify as moderate Republicans said they plan to break ranks and vote for Talarico, according to a separate account from Yahoo News. Democrats are working to win control of Congress during President Donald Trump's final two years in the White House, per the Star-Telegram.
Governor's Race Steadier, Railroad Commission Race Isn't
Down the ballot, Abbott's position looks more secure. The Republican incumbent governor leads Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative, 49% to 45%, per FOX 7 Austin's report on the poll. Still, Hinojosa's relative lack of statewide name recognition shows up in the numbers: 21% of likely voters said they don't yet know enough about her to form an opinion, the same station reports. In the lieutenant governor's race, Republican incumbent Dan Patrick leads Democratic state representative Vikki Goodwin by six points, according to the Star-Telegram's account of the poll.
The real surprise sits in the down-ballot Railroad Commission race, a close contest between Republican Bo French, a former Tarrant County GOP chair, and Democratic state representative Jon Rosenthal. The poll puts French two points ahead of Rosenthal.
French's Numbers Slide After UT Austin Social Media Post
French's favorability has since taken a sharp hit. He drew criticism from fellow Republicans after posting a social media message on Sept. 13 targeting South Asian-descent students who attended a University of Texas football game, according to the Star-Telegram. His net favorability has swung 15 points into negative territory since, FOX 7 Austin reports, and 32% of September poll respondents now view him unfavorably, up from just 14% among voters surveyed in late July.
That shift tracks with how little voters knew about French only two months earlier — many respondents in that earlier survey said they didn't know enough about him to have an opinion at all, a gap that has since narrowed sharply. A separate Texas 2036 poll found that 38% of respondents expected to split their ticket among candidates, while 24% remained unsure who they would support, according to FOX 7 Austin. The same report identifies the economy as the top factor voters cite heading into the election, with Democrats leaning on affordability concerns to make their case.
